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Is the cat bouncing towards an ATH or just luring us into a bear trap?

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With the US on holiday, market activity has slowed, leaving investors to digest a strong month of earnings. The S&P 500 delivered 13.4% growth, led by healthcare, financials, consumer discretionary, and technology. Big Tech, including Nvidia, posted better-than-expected results, but concerns over cash flow, inventories and AI deal circularity weighed on sentiment.
The Fed’s recent dovish signals helped stabilize markets, pushing rate-cut expectations higher and supporting a tech-led rally. European and Asian markets have been mostly quiet, with mixed results in tech and limited upside.
Uncertainty remains high around AI valuations, Fed policy and global macro conditions. A Santa rally...

Markets remained calm ahead of Thanksgiving, with US equities extending gains and yields continuing to decline. The 2-year Treasury yield, which reflects expectations for December Fed policy, fell to 3.45%, pricing in a 25bp rate cut with more than 80% probability. Adding to dovish sentiment, Kevin Hassett has emerged as a potential next Fed Chair. Known for his pro-deregulation stance and crypto-friendly approach, Hassett could steer the Fed toward lower rates and a lighter regulatory touch, with markets expecting 2–4 additional cuts in 2026 following the anticipated December move.

However, lower Fed rates do not guarantee lower market yields. If...

The AI battlefield heats up: Google storms back with Gemini 3 and TPUs, challenging Nvidia’s dominance as inference costs soar and Big Tech looks for cheaper, faster alternatives. Nvidia faces scrutiny over its latest earnings and growing inventories, while Meta’s AI investments raise questions about its business model. Alibaba surprises with strong cloud growth, and Amazon could benefit from robotics in the future.
On the macro side, soft US data keeps Fed doves in control, boosting rate cut expectations, while the US dollar weakens and EURUSD breaks out of consolidation. Across the pond, all eyes are on Rachel Reeves’ Autumn...

Sharp mood swings are not a good sign | MarketTalk: What’s up today?
Markets are on edge as December Fed rate-cut expectations climb past 80%, and every word from the central bank now moves markets. Short-term yields are jittery, risk assets are swinging, and investors are balancing hope with caution. The backdrop is anything but simple: a softening jobs market, inflation still above target, and lingering uncertainty from tariffs. Data is slowly returning after the long government shutdown, but it only paints part of the picture — what the Fed signals could matter more than what the numbers show. Traders...

Futures are nudging higher this morning as Fed expectations improve slightly, after one official suggested a near-term rate cut could be on the table. But it’s far from guaranteed. Nvidia’s earnings caused a stir — rising inventories and deferred payments signal possible stress, and a chain reaction in tech isn’t out of the question.
Meanwhile, Alibaba jumped 5% after Qwen 3 attracted over 10 million followers — China’s AI excitement continues. Kospi made a small recovery attempt, though gains were largely offset by heavy selling.
In the US, the 2-year yield dropped on Friday and bets on a December rate...

In just a few hours, the market swung from euphoria to outright drama. Nvidia’s stellar results gave sentiment a quick boost, but it didn’t last long — by the US open, the mood soured as questions about Nvidia’s books, AI fatigue and lingering credit concerns hit the tape. Oracle’s CDS spike, mounting chip inventories, rapidly cycling deferred revenue and a crypto sell-off all fueled a sharp risk-off move, sending the Nasdaq from +2% to deep in the red. Mixed US jobs data added to the uncertainty, while climbing Japanese yields reignited fears about repatriation of the roughly $3.4 trillion Japanese...

Nvidia just unleashed another blockbuster quarter, blowing past revenue forecasts by roughly $2bn and lifting data-centre income well beyond the $50bn threshold. Add Jensen Huang’s remark that Blackwell demand is “off the charts” and a fresh revenue outlook of $65bn, and you have all the ingredients for a renewed surge in market confidence and a lift across tech benchmarks.

Yet the more pressing issue is whether this momentum can actually last. Away from Nvidia’s glow, the macro landscape is getting heavier. The unexpected postponement of the October jobs figures, lingering uncertainty around October CPI, shrinking odds of a Fed cut,...

Tonight’s the night, ladies and gentlemen. Nvidia — the world’s biggest company — is about to lift the curtain on earnings, and my crystal ball is humming. Will they smash that $55 billion revenue expectation and drop another 73%-gross-margin mic on the table? Probably. Will Jensen Huang appear in a leather jacket and casually remind us that China doesn’t even matter to his forecast anymore? Also likely.
But here’s the real suspense: how will markets react? While AI deals were flying a month ago fueling enthusiasm and market euphoria, today everyone’s whispering about rising debt. Not helping, fading expectations of...

Markets are wobbling as slowing global growth, rising debt, and fading AI enthusiasm collide. Japan just posted its first GDP contraction in over a year, China’s property crisis refuses to fade, and European growth remains sluggish. Even Switzerland isn’t spared. Meanwhile, the bullish catalysts that powered markets all year — AI euphoria, massive government spending, and hopes of a dovish Fed — are losing steam. Japan’s huge $110bn stimulus barely moved the Nikkei, Fed cut expectations are evaporating, and AI stocks are under pressure despite big promises.
Now all eyes are on Nvidia. The chipmaker reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, and...