Fragile optimism

Show notes

Futures are nudging higher this morning as Fed expectations improve slightly, after one official suggested a near-term rate cut could be on the table. But it’s far from guaranteed. Nvidia’s earnings caused a stir — rising inventories and deferred payments signal possible stress, and a chain reaction in tech isn’t out of the question.
Meanwhile, Alibaba jumped 5% after Qwen 3 attracted over 10 million followers — China’s AI excitement continues. Kospi made a small recovery attempt, though gains were largely offset by heavy selling.
In the US, the 2-year yield dropped on Friday and bets on a December rate cut pushed past 50%. Still, inflation remains elevated, sentiment is low, and markets are cautious. Overall, nerves are calmer this morning, but the ball is in the middle.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.