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The AI trade is entering a new phase. Until now, investors worried about valuations, circular financing, soaring capex and whether massive spending on chips and data centres would eventually generate adequate returns. Now, the debate has shifted to the speed of AI development itself. That change is already creating unexpected winners and losers, as investors reconsider who benefits if the race for ever-larger frontier models slows. The consequences could also spill into the broader economy, where AI-related investment has become an important source of growth. Add surging energy prices, persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and expensive borrowing, and the timing is...

Oil prices are pushing higher as Middle East tensions intensify, while growing concerns about the pace of AI development are putting the technology trade under pressure. A potential AI slowdown also raises a bigger financial question: who pays for the massive data-centre leases, debt and power commitments accumulated during the AI boom?
Meanwhile, central banks add another layer of uncertainty. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are expected to raise rates this week, increasing borrowing costs just as concerns about AI-led growth emerge. Technology-heavy markets, including the Kospi, TAIEX and Nasdaq, could remain particularly vulnerable, while higher oil prices...

Oil prices are soaring, inflation pressures are building and bond yields are flying. Brent crude hit $110 per barrel as Middle East tensions intensified, while US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of next week’s policy decision.
Across the Atlantic, the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike as Christine Lagarde warned that energy prices are increasing upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, Donald Trump floated the idea of $5’000 cheques for American adults – a proposal that could potentially cost more than $1 trillion – just as concerns over US debt and fiscal...

Is this another step before a leg up or an actual quantum scare?

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00:27 Disclaimer
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00:41 Bitcoin
03:43 Ethereum
05:40 Solana
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Rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation fears, pushing global bond yields higher and putting pressure on equities. Even the US Treasury’s announcement to triple the size of today’s 10- to 20-year bond buyback has failed to calm the long end of the yield curve. Scott Bessent says he is “the house now”, but markets are clearly not playing along.
And there is a delicious historical irony. Back in 1992, Bessent was on the other side of the table, working with George Soros as markets forced Britain out of the ERM on Black Wednesday. The lesson then? Fighting fundamentals can...

Brent crude is approaching the psychological $100pb mark as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions keep energy markets on edge. Falling global oil reserves, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and a potential recovery in Chinese crude demand could add further upside pressure to prices.
Higher oil and gas prices are also reviving inflation concerns, pushing bond yields higher and complicating the outlook for central banks.
Meanwhile, technology stocks continue to resist the broader risk-off mood, supported by fresh AI developments and major new partnerships. But the AI story has another side: massive capital spending, rising borrowing requirements, leveraged balance sheets...

Markets kicked off the week on a mixed note. Asian tech stocks followed Wall Street higher on renewed excitement around OpenAI and the race toward AGI, while European equities struggled under the weight of rising energy prices, weak German industrial production and expectations of an ECB rate hike.
The major focus however was the sharp rise in the Japanese yen and the rising risk of a carry unwind. Years of cheap Japanese funding encouraged investors to borrow in yen and pile into higher-yielding assets, pushing classic carry pairs such as AUD/JPY to extreme levels. But today, with the Bank of...

Strong US jobs data, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields are increasing pressure on global markets — but tech stocks don’t seem to care. The latest US employment report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September, while escalating Middle East tensions keep crude oil prices elevated and inflation risks alive.
Yet AI enthusiasm continues to support tech valuations. OpenAI’s latest model launch boosted sentiment across the sector, with the rally spreading to Asian chipmakers and technology stocks. Meanwhile, bond markets remain under pressure as the US Treasury prepares bigger buybacks and some of the world’s...

Markets are looking for relief as rising oil prices, sticky inflation and mounting debt keep global bond yields under pressure. Attention now turns to the US jobs report. A softer-than-expected print — ideally accompanied by softer wage growth — could give Fed doves more room, pull yields and the dollar lower, and support equity valuations. But strong jobs data could reinforce inflation fears and keep borrowing costs elevated.
Meanwhile, hawkish policy expectations are building across major central banks, from the Fed to the BoJ, while elevated energy prices are creating very different winners and losers across global markets. Energy-heavy indices...

Oil remains the key driver across global markets, but could Venezuela help cool the pressure? The country is preparing to significantly boost production, thanks to US producers invstment. Yet not all oil is created equal. Venezuela’s crude is generally heavier and sourer than many Middle Eastern grades, making it harder and more expensive to transport and refine. So while additional Venezuelan barrels could weigh on global oil prices, they cannot simply replace disrupted Gulf supply.
Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and hawkish central bank expectations. The ECB, BoJ, RBA, BoE and Fed are all facing pressure...