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US Treasury yields finally eased, yet the dollar gained sharply as investors looked for shelter on rising concerns about European sovereign debt. France’s widening yield spread over Germany raises uncomfortable questions about fiscal sustainability, political uncertainty and the cost of financing its debt.
Higher yields do not automatically make French bonds a bargain: they may simply compensate investors for greater risk. Is France the new Greece? The comparison has limits, but the confidence spiral is familiar. And the implications extend beyond bonds, weighing on the euro and European equities while potentially supporting US assets.
Later today, US payrolls remain a...

Stronger growth, stronger jobs and softer inflation: US data delivered a Goldilocks combination, but investors struggled to celebrate. Treasury yields climbed, with the US 10-year reaching 5.30%, weighing on the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq 100 held positive.
Can AI earnings keep offsetting the pressure from rising yields? Micron delivered another strong earnings beat and upbeat revenue guidance, while HPE raised its networking growth outlook and announced a $1.2bn order from Vultr. Meanwhile, an FTC investigation into OpenAI and Anthropic adds another risk to the AI story.
Across Europe, accelerating inflation strengthens expectations of further ECB tightening, yet the euro...

The AI party is still on, but the foundations are cracking. Oil fell more than 5%, yet long-term US yields kept rising, the dollar strengthened and equities remained under pressure. Weak job openings and consumer confidence offered little comfort as investors grappled with inflation, debt and increasingly expensive borrowing.
Attention now turns to US growth, jobs and inflation data. Strong activity could reinforce Fed hike expectations; weaker activity with stubborn inflation would leave markets facing a much less comfortable combination.
Then comes Micron. Expectations are enormous, and a strong earnings beat may not be enough: guidance must convince investors that...

Oil prices and global yields continue to rise, putting pressure on equity valuations and supporting the US dollar. But beneath the move in US Treasuries, an interesting divergence is emerging. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains broadly stable around 2.3%, while real yields have risen sharply. This suggests that resilient US growth, increasingly hawkish Fed expectations and a higher real term premium – partly linked to heavy government borrowing – are playing an important role in pushing yields higher.
Meanwhile, the US yield curve continues to flatten as the 2-year yield rises faster than the 10-year, raising fresh questions about...

Oil prices and global bond yields are rising again, putting investors in front of some difficult choices. Sovereign yields are becoming increasingly attractive, but structurally higher inflation could push them even further. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has become materially cheaper despite trading higher, as strong earnings growth has driven significant multiple compression and lifted the forward earnings yield to around 5.2%.
This week, US inflation and labour-market data will test increasingly hawkish Fed expectations, while European inflation releases will shape the outlook for the ECB. In corporate news, Micron earnings will provide another major test for the AI trade, where...

Rising oil prices and surging global bond yields are testing investors’ appetite for risk, but equities continue to show remarkable resilience. The question is whether the equity rally can withstand higher borrowing costs and what history can tell us. In 2007, US 10-year yields climbed above 5% while the S&P 500 continued to advance — until deteriorating credit conditions and the subprime crisis changed the picture. Today, strong earnings, fiscal spending and massive AI investment are helping markets absorb higher rates. But risks are building. Oracle’s latest data-centre developments highlight growing concerns around power availability, financing and who ultimately carries...

Strong economic data came as bad news for markets. Surprisingly strong PMI figures from the US and Europe highlighted resilient growth, new orders and hiring, while persistent price pressures strengthened the case for further monetary tightening.
US Treasury yields jumped across the curve, the dollar strengthened and technology stocks came under pressure as investors reassessed the Fed outlook. In FX, EURUSD is approaching a critical technical support, while USDJPY remains caught between widening yield differentials and the threat of Japanese intervention.
Meanwhile, lower oil and diesel futures offer some relief, although energy costs remain elevated. Gold and Bitcoin are also...

🚀 What does it really take to build a startup in Silicon Valley?
Oliviero Pinotti went from studying hospitality at EHL to teaching himself how to code, becoming an early engineer at a Y Combinator-backed startup, and eventually making it into Y Combinator himself. Today, he is building Alfera, an AI startup developing AI workers for businesses.

🎙️ In this episode of UNLOCKED, Oliviero takes us behind the Silicon Valley dream: the relentless pace, the pivots, the fundraising rejections and the reality of building a company from the ground up. He also breaks down what Europe gets wrong about startups,...

Oil prices are falling, but the relief across energy markets remains only partial. Diesel prices are surging to record highs as supply disruptions, elevated shipping costs and geopolitical tensions keep refined products under pressure. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has backed the idea of restricting US diesel exports to ease domestic prices — but if only it were that simple. Restricting exports could tighten global supply, push international diesel prices even higher and ultimately have consequences at home.
Elsewhere, the US dollar remains well bid despite cheaper oil, while the SNB prepares for its latest policy decision and Bitcoin is rebounding alongside...

Oil prices are retreating on Middle East peace hopes, while AI optimism is roaring back as Meta’s Muse AI fuels expectations for a new wave of agent-driven computing demand.
The improved mood comes into a relatively quiet week for economic data and events. And if oil prices continue to retreat, the picture could brighten further: easing energy-driven inflation fears could pull global yields lower, relieve pressure on central banks and give risk appetite more room to run.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque...