Relief into Thanksgiving but...

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Markets remained calm ahead of Thanksgiving, with US equities extending gains and yields continuing to decline. The 2-year Treasury yield, which reflects expectations for December Fed policy, fell to 3.45%, pricing in a 25bp rate cut with more than 80% probability. Adding to dovish sentiment, Kevin Hassett has emerged as a potential next Fed Chair. Known for his pro-deregulation stance and crypto-friendly approach, Hassett could steer the Fed toward lower rates and a lighter regulatory touch, with markets expecting 2–4 additional cuts in 2026 following the anticipated December move.

However, lower Fed rates do not guarantee lower market yields. If inflation pressures persist, yields could rise even after cuts, as seen in September 2024. So, investors are monitoring the Fed closely, balancing expectations of easier policy against potential risks to growth and inflation

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.