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Flight to safety continued on Wednesday, as Middle East tensions rose by another notch after Iran-backed Hezbollah said it fired missiles to an Israeli military post near the Lebanese border. US Treasuries, gold and Swiss franc gained.
The easing US yields and the dollar’s depreciation are due to mounting tensions in the Mid East, but they are also due to a recent softening in Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers’ policy approach.
The probability of a no rate hike in November jumped above 90% after the Fed minutes, whereas this probability stood at around the 70% level at the beginning of this...

The IMF lowered its global growth forecast to 2.9% but boosted its inflation projection from 5.2% to 5.8% for next year, but investors preferred listening to the growing choir of Federal Reserve (Fed) members singing the dovish tune. The US yields remained under pressure.
But be careful, due today, the FOMC minutes will remind investors that ‘the rates will stay higher for longer’ if inflation remains above target.
For now, softer yields please equity investors. The S&P500 extended its rebound into the third straight session yesterday, and Nasdaq pulled out its 50-DMA resistance and closed above this level. Chinese equities,...

The reaction rally in oil is easing, with the barrel of crude settling around $86pb this morning. Brent crude remains offered near the 50-DMA, near $88pb level. Upside risks prevail.
Safe haven assets and oil companies amassed important capital inflows on Monday. Exxon Mobil jumped 3.5% and rally in oil stocks helped the British FTSE 100 limit gains in an otherwise depressive European trading session. Gold hit $1860 per ounce, as the US 10-year yield fell by a big chunk, around 18bp, on the back of increased inflows into the ten-year papers. The 2-year yield slipped below the 5% mark...

Capital flows into the safety of US dollar and gold this morning, while oil is up almost 4% after Hamas’ unexpected attack on Israel wreaked havoc in the region, and tensions have been mounting since then.
It is difficult to predict the extent of the price action on geopolitical shocks. The fact that the US and Iran are pulled into the turmoil hints that tensions may further escalate. From a price perspective, the $90pb level is expected to shelter decent offers in US crude, as escalation and prolongation of Mid-East tensions could be the final straw that could bring the...

It’s US jobs day, and today’s data could be one of the most important jobs data of the year because the US bond and equity markets are at a crossroads. The US 2-year yield refuses to lose the 5% mark from sight, while the US 10 and 30-year claim a further rise to 5% on expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer and that would require interest rates to stay higher for longer. The S&P500 on the other hand is waiting in ambush, a few points above the critical 200-DMA (4205). Below, at 4180, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement...

Markets are on an emotional rollercoaster ride this week. The slightest data is capable of moving oceans. Yesterday, the significantly softer-than-expected ADP report, and the announcement that 75’000 healthcare workers at Kaiser went on strike sparked a positive reaction from the market in a typical ‘bad news is good news’ day. Yields fell, the US dollar index retreated and equities rebounded. All eyes are on Friday’s official jobs numbers.
In energy, rising suspicions that the global economy is headed straight into a wall didn’t spare oil bulls yesterday. The barrel of American crude dived almost 6%, slipped below the 50-DMA...

The Ethereum ETF is live but the volume is nowhere near the expectations. However in the world of the altcoins, Solana is doing quite well on the bigger investor front, as people like the Visa of the crypto world...

00:00 Intro
00:23 Preview
00:45 Bitcoin
02:37 Ethereum
04:51 Chainlink
07:18 Solana
08:52 Subscribe & Good bye

#crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote

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Even a hint of an improving US jobs market sends shivers down investors' spines.
This is why the stronger than expected job openings data from the US spurred panic across the global financial markets yesterday. Note that the JOLTS data is volatile, and one data point is insufficient to point at changing trend. We still believe that the US jobs market will continue to loosen.
But the market reaction to yesterday’s JOLTS data was sharp and clear. The US yields spiked, equities were sold and the US dollar extended rally. Due today, the ADP report is expected to show a...

Relief that came with the news of a temporary avoidance of a potential government shutdown remained short lived. Sentiment in stocks markets turned rapidly sour, both in Europe and in the US, while the US treasuries didn’t even react positively to the no shutdown news in the first place. The selloff in the US 10-year bonds accelerated instead; the 10-year yield hit the 4.70% mark, whereas the 2-year yield remained steady-ish at around the 5.10% level. The gap between the US 2 and 10-year yields is now closing, but not necessarily for ‘good’ reasons.
The S&P5500 closed flat but the...

The US government didn’t shut down yesterday, as US policymakers agreed on a short-term funding deal that will keep the lights on until November 17th.
Bitcoin rallied and US equity futures gained in Asia hinting at improved appetite after the S&P500 recorded its 4th straight week of losses last week, and a nearly 5% fall in September. Investors didn’t flock into the US Treasuries following the US no-shutdown news, however.
Elsewhere, the Chinese official PMI rose above the 50 threshold, the Japanese tankan survey showed that confidence among big manufacturers improved for a second month, while inflation in the Eurozone...