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The New Year unsurprisingly kicked off with a hangover for both stock and bond markets, as investors began the year by closing their positions and taking profit following an impressive two-month rally that was boosted by the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon start cutting the interest rates and cut them thoroughly throughout this year. Last week’s jobs data from the US came in stronger than expected, yet again.
As such, there is no surprise that we see the US 2-year yield rebound to 4.40% and the 10-year yield return past 4% - its biggest weekly advance of...

Here we are, on the last trading day of the year. We had a year completely different than what was expected.
The biggest takeaway of this year is the birth of ChatGPT which propelled AI right into the middle of our lives. Nasdaq 100 stocks close the year at an ATH, Nvidia – which was the biggest winner of this year’s AI rally dwarfed everything that compared to it. Besides Nvidia, ChatGPT’s sugar daddy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google and Tesla – the so-called Magnificent 7 generated almost all of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100’s returns this year. And thanks to...

The US bond and stocks extended their rally on the back of soft US economic data and another strong US bond auction. The US dollar fell sharply against most majors, allowing the euro, sterling, and the yen to extend gains into the year end. The rally in the sovereign space looks overdone, hence the rally in stocks and the selloff in US dollar looks overstretched; there is a rising risk of a wild correction when the euphoria comes to an end.
Because the US has recorded the biggest two-month easing in financial conditions in its history because of the impressive...

The barrel of American crude finally cleared the $74/75pb resistance range on the mounting geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and traded at $76pb on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, the dovish Fed expectations continued to remain in the driver seat and drive the US stock and bond markets higher.
The US dollar remains under a decent selling pressure, gold extends gains on the back of softening US yields and the EURUSD continues to push higher above the 1.10 level on the back of hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) commentaries. Yet the rally in the Japanese yen starts giving signs of exhaustion into...

The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that’s below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully...

Appetite in European stocks waned yesterday, yet the US counterparts recovered Wednesday losses and closed the session more than 1% higher as the latest economic data pointed at a certain slowdown.
Today's inflation print is the Fed puzzle's last crucial piece. If today’s PCE print comes in as soft as expected, or ideally softer-than-expected, we shall see the rally in bonds – and perhaps in stocks – extend the Santa rally.
Presently, swaps point at six 25bp cut in the US by this time next year. That’s a 150bp cut in total. It means that the US rates are expected...

The Bitcoin ETF is almost here, are you ready for the fireworks? Solana seems to be ready for the bullrun but what is up with Ethereum?

00:00 Intro
00:22 Preview
00:42 Bitcoin
03:56 Ethereum
06:18 Solana
08:55 Subscribe & Good bye

#crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote

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We start feeling the cracks in market optimism: the bonds extended their rally yesterday after the inflation data in Britain surprised to the downside, but major US indices saw a sharp retreat. A 12% plunge in FedEx – which acts like a gauge of economic activity, the overbought market conditions in major global stock indices and the awareness that a further fall in bond yields weaken the idea of soft landing triggered a much-needed retreat in equity valuations.
We know that a further correction in equity valuations is on the cards. We just don’t know what the trigger will be....

Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas Barkin’s words that suggested that the Fed could cut rates if recent progress inflation continues sent the Nasdaq 100 to a fresh record for the 3rd consecutive day and the S&P500 to a fresh ytd high and near an ATH record as well.
Yet, the latest FedEx results didn’t enchant investors yesterday. The company, which serves as a gauge of economic activity, missed expectations due to declining airfreight and trucking volumes. The stock price fell 7% after the closing bell.
On the data dock, the latest housing data in the US showed that housing starts jumped...

The week started with mixed feelings. Investors broadly ignored the Federal Reserve (Fed) members’ latest warnings that the interest rate cuts won’t come as soon and as fast as priced in by the financial markets. Equity bulls look determined to keep the Xmas magic alive. Big banks like Goldman Sachs also add fuel on fire, citing that the dovish Fed is good for stocks. We all agree. Dovish Fed is good for stock valuations, yet, how long the Fed could remain dovish if the economy heats up? It depends…
Yesterday’s trading was marked by geopolitical tensions and news. The week...