Happy US jobs Friday! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

It’s US jobs day, and today’s data could be one of the most important jobs data of the year because the US bond and equity markets are at a crossroads. The US 2-year yield refuses to lose the 5% mark from sight, while the US 10 and 30-year claim a further rise to 5% on expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer and that would require interest rates to stay higher for longer. The S&P500 on the other hand is waiting in ambush, a few points above the critical 200-DMA (4205). Below, at 4180, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is waiting to judge whether the S&P500 should remain in the positive trend, or sink its teeth into a medium-term bearish consolidation zone.
A reasonable wages growth data combined with another NFP number below 200K, preferably near the expectation of 170K, or ideally lower, should pour some cold water on bond yields, especially on the longer portion of the yield curve. But the impact of a cool down in US sovereign markets doesn’t mean that the stocks are out of the woods.
In energy, the oil selloff extended to a second day, prices fell in five over the past six trading days. The barrel of US crude hit the $82.5pb level yesterday. The selloff could extend toward $80pb level no matter what, if the market focus remains on ‘growth’ and ‘demand’.
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