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Inflation in the US accelerated, not only in terms of monthly headline figure but everywhere, both core and headline, and both yearly and monthly figures came in hotter-than-expected. US yields and dollar rose, gold fell, but the S&P500 gained!
Elsewhere, sterling fell against the dollar as softer-than-expected jobs data in the UK reassured the Bank of England (BoE) doves and boosted the expectation of rate cuts this year to almost three following the data.
In Japan, all eyes are on wages negotiations as many Japanese unions disclose their pay deals with employers this week. Yen traders are closely watching the...

The week started with limited appetite in US stock and a fresh record for Bitcoin. Major US indices were flat on Monday’s trading session ahead of today’s US CPI data.
Investors are not feeling fully comfortable into today’s US inflation print, as there are several factors warning of a second blip in US disinflation that could eventually lead to a further softening in dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
Volatility will certainly be on the menu of the day, as the Fed’s data-dependent approach results in an increased focus on inflation data. Bloomberg data shows that over the past six months,...

The US economy added 275K new nonfarm jobs last month, significantly more than around 200K new job additions penciled in by analysts. But happily, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% and wages grew slower than expected on a yearly basis and were almost flat on a monthly basis. The fact that another strong NFP read didn’t translate into higher wages gave a peace of mind to investors. US yields fell and the US dollar index tumbled in the immediate aftermath of the US jobs data, the EURUSD spiked to 1.0980.
While I found that the dollar selloff was a...

Yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and Lagarde’s press conference went according to the plan. The ECB left its rates unchanged for the fourth straight meeting, lowered its inflation forecasts, predicted that inflation will reach the 2% target by next year and suppressed its growth forecast for this year. Still, Lagarde said that they aren’t ‘sufficiently confident’ in inflation to lower rates but that they ‘will know a little bit more in April and that they will know a lot more in June’. It was heard as ‘we will start cutting the rates in June if inflation continues to ease...

Bitcoin is back, baby! We're at All-Time Highs now and that means it's officially bullrun season. It's starting to get exciting...

00:00 Intro
00:15 Preview
00:41 Bitcoin
07:46 Ethereum
09:48 Uniswap
10:44 Aave
11:14 Subscribe & Good bye

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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Congress went smoothly yesterday. He said that the Fed will certainly cut the interest rates this year and that he’s not necessarily looking for inflation to hit the 2% target to start cutting rates. US yields and dollar fell, equities rebounded, and gold rose to a fresh all-time high.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its rate unchanged at 5% at yesterday’ decision and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its latest policy verdict today. The European policymakers will leave rates unchanged but will revise inflation forecast down. The...

Bitcoin hit a record. Gold rose on safe haven demand walking into the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Congress. Powell is expected to ask policymakers for patience before cutting interest rates. Even though higher yields – that would result from a hawkish shift in Fed expectations – are not favourable for the valuation of gold, the size and the amplitude of a potential market selloff could help investors look past the higher opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold and push the price of an ounce further up.
US major indices were down yesterday, as Apple...

China wants to grow 5% this year, create around 12 mio jobs in the urban area and print a 3% inflation. Targets are ambitious – especially the inflation target - given that the base effect will not play in favour of growth this year and deflation is not an easy battle to win. Caixin PMI printed an unexpected slowdown in the expansion of Chinese services in February, while Tesla tumbled 7% yesterday after announcing that its shipments from the Shanghai mega factory slumped to the lowest levels in a year due to a dull activity during the Lunar Year Holiday...

You wouldn’t know, by looking at the S&P500’s performance on Friday, that a US regional bank was having a rough time. Almost a year into last year’s regional bank crisis and about a month after a first post-earnings free-fall, the New York Community Bancorp – a commercial real estate lender in New York - fell more than 25% on Friday after saying that it discovered ‘material weaknesses’ in the way it tracks loan risks. But the KBW’s bank ETF closed the session near flat, the S&P500 rose to a fresh record, its 15th fresh record since the year began, Nasdaq...

Thank God! Yesterday’s inflation report from the US wasn’t worse than expected. A soft jobless claims figure also helped cooling the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) worries. The S&P500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 rebounded yesterday. But the US dollar rebounded, as well, following the PCE print.
In Europe, the inflation heatmap was mixed. The EURUSD slipped below the 100 and 200-DMA, fundamentals back a further depreciation of the euro against the greenback provided the diverging strength of the underlying economies. The USDJPY is back above the 150, but can probably not go further up because traders fear a direct FX intervention...