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The data from the US yesterday was mixed: a softer-than-expected ADP read and a stronger-than-expected ISM services data marked the session. The bond traders focused on the weak ADP report rather than on the strong ISM read, and sent the US 2-year yield down to 4.72%. The fact that the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced the widely expected 25bp and left the door open for more rate cuts – if inflation progress toward the right direction – and the expectation that the European Central (ECB) will be the second G7 central bank to announce the first rate cut also helped...

Shocker! The exit polls were completely wrong in predicting the outcome of the Indian election. Not only that Narendra Modi’s BJP couldn’t secure a landslide victory in the latest elections – as it was suggested by Monday’s polls, but it couldn’t even win enough seats to secure a majority in the parliament. The Nifty 50 fell nearly 6% from a record and remains under pressure this morning while the Indian rupee depreciated as fast as it had jumped on Monday.
In the US, the JOLTS data from the US showed that job openings in the US fell to around 8...

GameStop rallied nearly 90% after Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty on Twitter, posted a screenshot on Reddit showing a big stake in option. Other meme stocks saw positive vibes as well.
Elsewhere, US yields fell after the latest ISM manufacturing data showed an unexpected acceleration in contraction in May as prices eased. The US dollar index sank below its 100 and 200-DMA. The softer dollar sent the EURUSD above the 1.09 resistance, Cable rallied past the 1.28 as the USDJPY eased.
All eyes are on US jobs data this week. Soft data should further fuel the dovish Fed expectations.
Lower...

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will extend supply cuts to the Q3 but will gradually return barrels to the market over the following 12 months. The barrel of US crude fell to $76.50 at the weekly open before rebounding toward the $77pb on the back of a stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI, with the Caixin index pointing at the strongest expansion in nearly 2 years.
In India, the Nifty 50 jumped to a fresh record, and the rupee rallied as exit polls for the Indian election hinted at a clear-cut victory for PM Modi’s party.
The combination of Friday’s soft...

After the ETF is before the ETF, the Ethereum ETF is finally here but not live yet for trading. What's next? We'll discuss the price implications of the second spot ETF crypto product.

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Market mood further darkened yesterday following another round of weak Treasury sales in the US. Treasuries and equities sold off, the US dollar gained across the board. Things could get better or worse in the coming hours. All eyes are on the US GDP update, due today, and the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation – the core PCE number – due tomorrow.
Elsewhere, released yesterday, the Australian inflation unexpectedly rose in April and the German inflation came in worse than expected. Spain and Italy will release their inflation updates today, France tomorrow and we will have the aggregate CPI for...

The first day back after the long weekend brought traders back down to earth. A weak sale of US 2 and 5-year notes, and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Neel Kashkari’s comments that the Fed cannot rule out hiking the interest rates as a next move sent the US treasuries lower yesterday. Stocks stagnated, except Nvidia - which jumped 7% on news that Elon Musk’s xAI would use its H100 chips!
In the FX, the broad-based recovery of the US dollar sent the EURUSD lower yesterday before it reached the 1.09 resistance. Inflation expectations in the Eurozone fell to the lowest levels...

Yesterday was a slow Monday. The US and the UK markets were closed, the news flow was light and the trading volumes were thin.
The barrel of US crude trades a touch below its 100-DMA. The tense geopolitical setup is supportive of further gains along with the rising US demand into summer and OPEC’s restrictive tone regarding its outlook.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Francois Villeroy de Galau said yesterday that the ECB could lower interest rates both in June and the July meetings but the EURUSD is pushing higher at the start of this week, on the back...

While last week began on optimism that inflation could allow the Fed to cut rates as early as in September, this week begins on pessimism that the latter will probably not be possible. The US markets are closed today, but the US 2-year yield ended last week near 4.95% and the probability of a September cut fell to a coin flip. But regardless, the US stock markets continue to trade near record levels. The S&P500 and Nasdaq both closed last week a few points below their ATH levels, boosted by a fresh shot of energy after Nvidia reported another set...

The week hasn’t been pleasant for the market bulls. On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes showed the disturbing truth that ‘many’ Fed members wondered whether keeping the rates ‘high for longer’ was sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation, and if hiking the rates wouldn’t be a better idea. Then, the UK PM Sunak announced a general election beginning of July – way earlier than many expected – abating the slightest glimmer of hope to see the Bank of England (BoE) cut its rates in June. Meanwhile, the latest British CPI data came in hotter-than-expected, anyway, warning that the policy easing wouldn’t necessarily...