Recession fears are risingâbut does that really mean the market is doomed? Not quite. In this episode, we explore how the central banks respond to economic and financial crisis, how financial markets overcome periods of weakness and recession, and why bad news are often perceived as good news by investors.
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Monday was rough across global financial markets. Mood is better this morning but intraday volatility is at levels not seen since the Covid-era selloff as weâre facing an avalanche of headlines: whoâs ready to negotiate, whoâs not, what did Trump say, what did he mean⌠itâs nearly impossible to predict the next move. US Senator Elizabeth Warren called it the âdumbest trade warâ in history, pointing out that this turmoil isnât caused by a virus or a housing collapseâitâs man-made and potentially fixable by simply rolling back tariffs. For now, Trump stands his ground, while world leaders oscillate between retaliation...
Last week marked the beginning of a historical market selloff. The selloff on Friday accelerated after China said that they would respond to the US tariffs with 34% tariff on American imports on their own. Europeans warned that âwhen elephants fight, grass tremblesâŚâ to say that retaliation smells stronger than negotiation, right now. Equities and crude oil plunge, gold is also giving signs of exhaustion...
So if youâre wondering where does the capital flow? It flows to into the government bonds â the US, the German, the Japanese, the Australian yields are all down on the growing expectation that the...
Yesterday saw the worst selloff since pandemic. Equities tumbled, US dollar tanked, treasury yields melted, and crude oil dived.
The tariff chaos will likely help the euro end the week above the 1.10 mark and sterling above 1.30 against the US dollar. And gains could be sustainable as nations look willing to retaliate.
More interestingly, parallels with pandemic-era supply chain disruptions become apparent as we try to analyse the potential impact of tariffs on world economy and central bank responses. Opinions for Europe are dovish but the Fed expectations diverge.
Listen to find out more!
Trumpâs tariff announcement was worse than expected. The market reaction to the tariff announcement is strongly negative. The pricing in currency markets suggests rising retaliation bets to the US tariffs. The US dollar eased to the lowest level since Trump entered the White House, the lowest levels this year and the lowest levels since mid October. The tariff announcement sent Cable directly up above the 1.30 psychological mark. The EURUSD trades above the 1.09 level while the USDJPY tanked to 147.
Inside equities, the afterhours trading looked like a bunch of US companies announced disappointing earnings all at once. Apple...
ETH is pronounced dead my multiple analysts and investor, but what's the truth?
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The much-expected US tariffs will be announced in a few hours and they will take immediate effect, according to the latest news.
Yesterdayâs ISM data confirmed that the US manufacturing activity slowed, new orders tanked, employment softened while the prices-paid showed a steep jump â steeper than expected by analysts. The unideal data didnât trigger a further selloff in US equities, however. On the contrary, the S&P500 ended a jiggly session 0.38% higher, as the yields retreated â meaning that investors put more weight on the rising recession bets than they did on the rising price pressures. But appetite remains...
March is over, the pain is probably not. Global equity markets kicked off the week on a negative note ahead of the so-called Liberation Day, April 2nd, the day the Trump administration will reveal the reciprocal tariffs to the rest of the world. Based on the strategy adopted by the White House since the beginning of Trumpâs second term, tomorrowâs announcement will likely by exaggerated, overdone, buzzy and nerve-wrecking to make the others fear, react and negotiate.
From here, there are many possible scenarios â obviously â but the most likely two are 1. US tariffs sound more reasonable than...
The tariff talk remains on the headlines as the Liberation Day approaches. Risk appetite is nowhere to be found, the US dollar is weak, gold continues to extend gains into uncharted territories and oil bulls remain unreactive to the news that Trump is pissed off with Putin for unveiling plans for the next Ukrainian leadership. Equities are under pressure, the US dollar reversed an attempt to rebound from the March dip and is down for the third session on mediocre growth expectations for the US economy.
In summary, the euro is looking stronger than sterling and the dollar, while the...
Sentiment remains sour due to intensifying tariff talk. Of course, the global ramifications are immense and the selloff is intense. And April 2nd â aka the Liberation Day â when the US is expected to announce its reciprocal tariffs is the next event to watch. Itâs hard to be optimistic when we know that retaliation will emerge and uncertainties will continue with possible retaliation.
Retaliation and the extent of retaliation will determine the next direction of the US dollar and equities. For now, bearish sentiment rules both across the global financial markets
And it is in this difficult market setup...