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Stocks in Europe and the US rallied as oil and gold retreated yesterday on news that Iran is willing to resume talks on its nuclear program. The market interpreted this as a sign that Iran either has no intention — or possibly no means — to escalate the war, easing concerns about potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows transit.
However, this is not a classic de-escalation story. While Iran appears to be signalling restraint, former President Donald Trump urged the evacuation of Tehran, and Israel has...

Headlines were busy over the weekend as hostilities between Iran and Israel continued. An Iranian gas field in the Persian Gulf was hit on Saturday, fueling concerns that the escalation could spill over into global energy markets.
US crude opened the week above $76 per barrel, and Brent crude briefly pushed above $84 per barrel. However, both benchmarks quickly gave back gains. Natural gas also spiked at the open, breaking above its 100-day moving average, before retreating. The US dollar edged higher on haven flows, while gold, which opened at record levels, is also paring gains. The early trading reaction...

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran sends 100s of drones on Israel. Oil jumps, the US dollar and safe haven assets rally as equities come under pressure as geopolitical tensions mount.
What’s next?
Back in October 2024, Israel had launched a major strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. At the time, Iran responded with drone attacks that were mostly intercepted and perceived more as a warning than a retaliation. Tensions eventually eased and markets quickly settled. A similar de-escalation is possible now—but not guaranteed. Judging by the price action, the market’s response to last night’s attack has been very strong.
Listen...

The relief that the US and China is replaced by rumours that the EU will hardly ink a deal before the July deadline, and Trump has threatened other Asian nations with fresh tariffs—saying his administration will send letters within two weeks to inform them of unilateral tariffs as a pressure tactic.
So, optimism is waning. Investors are also focused on the upcoming US 30-year bond auction to get a feeling of how well the latest US debt news have been digested.
The US dollar is significantly lower following the CPI release and renewed tariff and debt concerns. The EURUSD finally...

The SEC chair met with the crypto task force pushing the DeFi industry in the US.

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Trade headlines are striking an optimistic tone this week. According to Bloomberg, US and Chinese officials have agreed on a plan ‘to ease trade tensions,’ a move that could revive the flow of sensitive goods between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, the US and Mexico appear close to finalising a deal that would lift the 50% tariffs on steel imports.
Risk sentiment across Asian markets is broadly positive, but US and European equity futures are modestly lower this morning, likely reflecting some disappointment over the lack of concrete detail in trade negotiations. Officials are now expected to present the...

The week started on a quiet note in the US and with some weakness in Europe, where many were off due to a religious holiday. But futures are in positive territory this morning as traders return to their desks.
One of the main drivers of optimism is the renewed momentum in US/China trade talks. The first day of the second round of negotiations reportedly went relatively well. There hasn’t been a breakthrough yet, and the talks in London continue today. Still, rumours are circulating that the US may be willing to make concessions on tech exports in exchange for China...

Last week ended on a positive note. Improved headlines on the trade front between the US and China and a set of better-than-expected US jobs data helped lift the S&P 500 by 1.5% over the week. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2% despite a sharp selloff in Tesla shares amid a heated dispute between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Friday’s rally was driven largely by a narrative that the US economy remains surprisingly resilient despite trade chaos and geopolitical uncertainty. But the US 2-year yield jumped past the 4% mark on Friday. Don’t bet that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will act...

Donald Trump and Elon Musk went from best friends to worse enemies, while relations between Trump and Xi look better after the much-expected phone call between the two leaders. The rare earth metals ETFs are up while stock investors remain on the sidelines before the release of the latest jobs data from the US before the weekly closing bell... that could – maybe – further boost the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and send major indices higher.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates yesterday but signalled the end of the easing cycle, crude oil continues to see support...

iShares MSCI All World Index just hit a fresh all-time high yesterday — only a few hours after the OECD cut the global growth forecast, citing global trade uncertainties, tighter monetary conditions, and weakened consumer and business sentiment.
Yet investors couldn’t care less. Dips in equity markets are still seen as opportunities to buy cheaper despite unideal news on the trade and data fronts... But if you want to know, yesterday’s ISM services data showed a surprise contraction, and the ADP jobs report was weak — just 37,000 new private jobs last month. Over the past four months, three readings...