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Risk off reins.
First, the US east and gulf ports went on a strike on Tuesday, as expected. It will cause supply disruptions and increase the price pressures before November presidential elections.
Then, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran has reportedly fired about 200 missiles on Israel as response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel said it will retaliate. The involvement of Iran could in fact lead to a wider and a more serious conflict across the region, and threaten oil supply. This is why, the barrel of US crude gained more than 3.50%...

The Chinese stocks extended gains on Monday as China announced more stimulus measures and investors rushed to buy before the markets closed for national holiday today. The CSI 300 index jumped more than 8% on Monday and was up by a whopping 26% in six sessions. But the S&P500 gained barely 1% over the same period. Maybe, Powell gets worried that the Chinese measures would boost inflation, along with the potential price risks from the US port strikes due to begin today? Whatever it is, the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves were on the retreat yesterday, the euro doves gained field....

The week kicked off with another bull run in Chinese stocks on further stimulus news. The Chinese stocks extended their rally, iron ore gained, the AUDUSD, preparing to test the 0.70 cents level as Australian stocks extend rally to fresh ATH.
Over in Europe, growth and China-sensitive European stocks are also having their share of the Chinese pie. The Stoxx 600 index closed the week at an ATH. LVMH gained 20% in just a week.
In separate news, inflation data from France and Spain came in lower than expected. More figures are to flow in between today and tomorrow to...

The S&P500 printed its 42nd record high this year yesterday on the back of a mix bag of economic and corporate news.
Due today, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE index, will determine whether the soft landing dreamers will carry the US stock rally to fresh record levels.
Elsewhere, the mix of Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus measures continue to boost Chinese and China-related stocks. LVMH jumped 10% yesterday.
Crude oil remains under pressure on reports that Saudi Arabia will drop its price target and focus on expanding its market share.
And finally, in Europe, the soft...

The global economy is settling into a newfound stability and central banks can continue to cautiously cut rates, said the OECD yesterday, but warned that the major central banks should maintain their data-dependent approach and be ‘prudent’ while cutting their rates. The UK economy will do particularly fine they said, despite the sticky core inflation on the island.
Alas, the upbeat outlook from the OECD, the rising tensions in the Middle East, the 4.5-mio barrel dive in US oil inventories last week (that pushed the US oil inventories to the lowest levels in 2.5 years) and the big stimulus measures...

The S&P500 celebrated its 41st record high yesterday on rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets. Chinese equities extended rally as well as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its MLF rate this morning, on top of the measures announced earlier this week. Global mining stocks are shining.
Elsewhere, the US dollar weakens and the dollar’s weakness masks the gloomy fundamentals of the European economies. Gold and oil remain bid on the back of geopolitical tensions.
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Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced more stimulus measures, the Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinted at more – and maybe big – rate cuts while the soft set of PMI data in the euro area boosted the European Central Bank (ECB) doves as well.
There is one central bank that stands out in the middle of a jungle of doves and that’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the 7th consecutive meeting today and its...

Risk is on, sentiment is great since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the end of policy tightening with a 50bp cut. This week, the US will reveal the latest PMI figures, the third estimate of its Q2 GDP growth and the core PCE index – also expected to give the market bulls enough room to extend the risk rally. The Eurozone CPI updates could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stay pat, but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also seen cutting its rates.
As such, oil and energy could...

The Fed began easing its monetary policy with a big, fat 50bp cut. The markets first didn’t know what to make out of the decision, but the bulls are back in joy since yesterday: the S&P500 and Dow Jones trade at record high, the dollar is under pressure.
Fed’s optimism that inflation will deal with itself is cool, but it’s a view that the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers didn’t share yesterday when they almost all voted to skip an interest rate cut in the UK this month – despite softening inflation in the UK as well.
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Today, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely end the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle of its modern history. It is expected to start cutting its interest rates, update its economic projections and reveal its latest dot plot.
While a rate cut is fully priced in, investors can’t agree on whether the Fed should cut by 25 or 50bp? There is roughly 50-50 chance asses to one scenario or the other.
Today’s episode is a pure Fed-overdose.
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