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US retail sales beat expectations, fueled Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and bets of another rate hike in December – or January – yesterday. The US 2-year yield spiked to a fresh high since 2007, and the 10-year yield spiked above the 4.80% mark regardless of mounting tensions in Gaza – reminding those who seek protection against geopolitical tensions that the US sovereigns’ safety is limited by potentially sharp reaction to economic data, a crowded issuance calendar, the possibility of a further belt-tightening from the Fed and concerns about US deficit in an environment where the US is not only expected...

Stocks gained, and bonds fell yesterday on US and allies’ efforts to deescalate tensions in the Middle East. Yet Israel told the US ‘to embrace for a long war’. Gold, US treasuries and franc could rapidly jump in case of further escalation of tensions.
The Gaza situation is not helping to improve relations between the US and China as the US considers further limit China’s – and its military’s - access to advanced chips.
On the data front, the Empire Manufacturing index showed a slower-than-expected contraction in October, and the retail sales data for September will be released today. A...

The first set of bank results released last Friday looked good, although the outlook remained dark and cloudy. The earnings season will be at full speed this week with the rest of the US big banks due to report in the coming days, alongside Tesla, Netflix and TSM.
But this earnings season will likely remain under the shadow of mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broad-based discomfort and lack of appetite that comes along with it. Gold and crude oil rallied before the weekly closing bell, and US treasuries are demanded as investors seek safely on a...

US inflation data wasn’t very soothing for investors at yesterday’s release. The stickiness in yesterday’s inflation data wasn’t a surprise and the latest set of jobs and inflation data will unlikely change the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) mind for the November meeting. The Fed is expected to sit on its hands, wait and see. But the first Fed rate cut won’t come so soon, and the Fed will try to capitalize on the ‘higher for longer’ policy to avoid having an accident on what they call ‘the last mile’.
The market reaction to yesterday’s data was very clear, however. The rebound...

A new Bitcoin whitepaper is putting more focus on Bitcoin than Ethereum. At the same time Ethereum is showing some weakness. Is Bitcoin the clear number one?

00:00 Intro
00:22 Preview
00:32 Bitcoin
06:20 Ethereum
09:48 Subscribe & Good bye

#crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote

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Flight to safety continued on Wednesday, as Middle East tensions rose by another notch after Iran-backed Hezbollah said it fired missiles to an Israeli military post near the Lebanese border. US Treasuries, gold and Swiss franc gained.
The easing US yields and the dollar’s depreciation are due to mounting tensions in the Mid East, but they are also due to a recent softening in Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers’ policy approach.
The probability of a no rate hike in November jumped above 90% after the Fed minutes, whereas this probability stood at around the 70% level at the beginning of this...

The IMF lowered its global growth forecast to 2.9% but boosted its inflation projection from 5.2% to 5.8% for next year, but investors preferred listening to the growing choir of Federal Reserve (Fed) members singing the dovish tune. The US yields remained under pressure.
But be careful, due today, the FOMC minutes will remind investors that ‘the rates will stay higher for longer’ if inflation remains above target.
For now, softer yields please equity investors. The S&P500 extended its rebound into the third straight session yesterday, and Nasdaq pulled out its 50-DMA resistance and closed above this level. Chinese equities,...

The reaction rally in oil is easing, with the barrel of crude settling around $86pb this morning. Brent crude remains offered near the 50-DMA, near $88pb level. Upside risks prevail.
Safe haven assets and oil companies amassed important capital inflows on Monday. Exxon Mobil jumped 3.5% and rally in oil stocks helped the British FTSE 100 limit gains in an otherwise depressive European trading session. Gold hit $1860 per ounce, as the US 10-year yield fell by a big chunk, around 18bp, on the back of increased inflows into the ten-year papers. The 2-year yield slipped below the 5% mark...

Capital flows into the safety of US dollar and gold this morning, while oil is up almost 4% after Hamas’ unexpected attack on Israel wreaked havoc in the region, and tensions have been mounting since then.
It is difficult to predict the extent of the price action on geopolitical shocks. The fact that the US and Iran are pulled into the turmoil hints that tensions may further escalate. From a price perspective, the $90pb level is expected to shelter decent offers in US crude, as escalation and prolongation of Mid-East tensions could be the final straw that could bring the...

It’s US jobs day, and today’s data could be one of the most important jobs data of the year because the US bond and equity markets are at a crossroads. The US 2-year yield refuses to lose the 5% mark from sight, while the US 10 and 30-year claim a further rise to 5% on expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer and that would require interest rates to stay higher for longer. The S&P500 on the other hand is waiting in ambush, a few points above the critical 200-DMA (4205). Below, at 4180, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement...