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The Chinese returned from their Lunar New Year holiday having traveled and spent more this year than before the pandemic. The early trading hours were cheery, but enthusiasm left its place to doom and gloom quickly as the Chinese equities found it hard to extend gains. Equities in Europe however extended gains to a fresh ytd high, and the Stoxx 600 index continues to trade at a spitting distance from an ATH even though France lowered its growth forecast for 2024 to 1%. US will be back today with retailer earnings. Nvidia will go to the earnings confessional tomorrow after...

The week starts with the soothing news that the Chinese traveled and spent more than they did in the same period of 2019. As such, the Chinese stock markets return from the CNY break on a cheery note; the CSI 300 index in the positive, after the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed the session in the red after Friday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report.
The US and Canada are off today but the week will gather pace with big US retail and Nvidia earnings from Tuesday! Investors believe that the Nvidia earnings could act as a make-or-break moment for the technology rally, as...

The S&P500 rebounded past the 5000 yesterday. This time, a mixed set of manufacturing data and a drop in US retail sales – which fell the most in almost a year – were brought forward as soothing factors regarding the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. The S&P500 rebounded past 5000, stocks in Europe and Japan trade near ATH levels despite slowing economies and recession chatter.
Investors will watch the US PPI update before the closing bell, but I wonder if it matters, anymore.
The US dollar index retreated to 100-DMA and sees support at this level. The EURUSD tested its...

The market has been very quick in swallowing and digesting this Tuesday’s less than ideal inflation data from the US. Yields and the USD retreated, stocks rebounded. Tech led the rally.
But the rate cut expectations are being scaled back in the US, and a further appreciation in the US dollar could also get the other central bank doves on their knees. This is certainly why the EURUSD has a limited potential at the current levels. Elsewhere, the USDJPY struggles to find sellers after the news that Japan entered recession in Q4 – and they still have negative rates. The...

Solana outages were a thing of the past in the last few months, yet we just had a major outage for 4.5 hours last week. Is the Solana price in danger?

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04:29 Ethereum
06:53 Solana
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Yesterday’s inflation data from the US didn’t go smoothly down the market’s throat. Instead, the stronger-than-expected set of inflation data dashed hopes of seeing the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates anytime in the first half of this year.
Honestly, one can tell you if June or July would be a better time for the Fed to start cutting. The data will decide when the time comes. Yet the incoming data shows a surprising strength in the US economy. Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate, for example, prints a 3.4% growth for the Q1 – far from a number that would push the...

The week started on a positive note on this side of the Atlantic Ocean, and on a mixed note on the American side. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman said that the rates are in a good place to keep pressure on inflation and that there is no need to ease rates soon. Likewise, Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin said that they are ‘closing in on inflation’ but that they ‘are not there just yet’.
This being said, the New York Fed’s latest inflation survey came with a good surprise: the 3-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest level on record, to...

Last Friday’s inflation revisions in the US were insignificant and hinted that inflation in the US was about the same by the end of last year. The yields rose regardless but the S&P500 and Nasdaq renewed record as net short positions in the S&P500 increased on bets of imminent correction.
This week, the attention will be on the latest CPI updates from the US, the UK and Switzerland. Soothing US inflation should keep the doves in a state of near-euphoria.
Elsewhere, the positive trend of crude oil since the start of this year is becoming clearer, although the topside remains...

Appetite in risk assets remains robust. The S&P500 index shortly traded at the 5000 psychological mark before closing a few points below this level. The rally is not only fueled by rate cut expectations and AI speculation but is also backed – to some extent – by encouraging tech earnings from the stars of the league. Note that Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta generated nearly $140bn cash from their operations last quarter. That was the highest on record.
The Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI revisions today, which consists of the revised month-over-month CPI figures for the past...

Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve members continued to make the headlines in the US, yesterday, with Susan Collins, Thomas Barkin and a new Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, all saying the same exact thing: that there is no hurry for the US to cut the interest rates.
But knowing that the Fed is done hiking its rates and the expectation that the next move from the Fed will be a rate cut is enough to keep the market in a sweet spot. The US had a record-breaking auction for its 10-year bonds yesterday, where it sold $42bn worth of notes...