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The global economy is settling into a newfound stability and central banks can continue to cautiously cut rates, said the OECD yesterday, but warned that the major central banks should maintain their data-dependent approach and be ‘prudent’ while cutting their rates. The UK economy will do particularly fine they said, despite the sticky core inflation on the island.
Alas, the upbeat outlook from the OECD, the rising tensions in the Middle East, the 4.5-mio barrel dive in US oil inventories last week (that pushed the US oil inventories to the lowest levels in 2.5 years) and the big stimulus measures...

The S&P500 celebrated its 41st record high yesterday on rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets. Chinese equities extended rally as well as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its MLF rate this morning, on top of the measures announced earlier this week. Global mining stocks are shining.
Elsewhere, the US dollar weakens and the dollar’s weakness masks the gloomy fundamentals of the European economies. Gold and oil remain bid on the back of geopolitical tensions.
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Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced more stimulus measures, the Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinted at more – and maybe big – rate cuts while the soft set of PMI data in the euro area boosted the European Central Bank (ECB) doves as well.
There is one central bank that stands out in the middle of a jungle of doves and that’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the 7th consecutive meeting today and its...

Risk is on, sentiment is great since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the end of policy tightening with a 50bp cut. This week, the US will reveal the latest PMI figures, the third estimate of its Q2 GDP growth and the core PCE index – also expected to give the market bulls enough room to extend the risk rally. The Eurozone CPI updates could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stay pat, but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also seen cutting its rates.
As such, oil and energy could...

The Fed began easing its monetary policy with a big, fat 50bp cut. The markets first didn’t know what to make out of the decision, but the bulls are back in joy since yesterday: the S&P500 and Dow Jones trade at record high, the dollar is under pressure.
Fed’s optimism that inflation will deal with itself is cool, but it’s a view that the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers didn’t share yesterday when they almost all voted to skip an interest rate cut in the UK this month – despite softening inflation in the UK as well.
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Today, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely end the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle of its modern history. It is expected to start cutting its interest rates, update its economic projections and reveal its latest dot plot.
While a rate cut is fully priced in, investors can’t agree on whether the Fed should cut by 25 or 50bp? There is roughly 50-50 chance asses to one scenario or the other.
Today’s episode is a pure Fed-overdose.
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Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves are going seriously ahead of themselves, or there will be a big disappointment when the Fed will announce its policy decision tomorrow. Or... the Fed will align with the market and give investors want they want, to avoid creating further panic. The expectation of a 50bp is now assessed nearly 70% chance. US yields and the dollar are softening, the equities are holding on to their gains, precious metals see demand and US crude jumps above $70pb.
In individual news, Intel jumped more than 6% yesterday on news that it sealed a deal with...

We are heading into a busy week with major central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce their latest policy verdicts this week. The Brits and the Japanese are expected to remain seated on their hands and the Fed will certainly lower its rates this week. But by how much – is the million-dollar question!
Wagers for a 50bp cut are rising into Wednesday’s decision, the US yields ands the dollar are under pressure, gold advances through uncharted territory but oil investors are hard to cheer up. The...

The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday lowered its deposit facility rate by 25bp for the second time this year. But ECB Chief Christine Lagarde kept a poker face for what’s next and said that there is no commitment to a particular rate path. And mixed updates to forecasts didn’t help much either. The European officials revised their growth projections lower for the next two years and kept their inflation forecasts unchanged, but they increased their core inflation forecast for this year and the next. It was like tightening the belt on one side but loosening it on the other.
The...

Today we'll talk about Polygon's switch from MATIC to POL as well as Bitcoin's and Ethereum's chart developments.

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