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Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as markets navigate fragile ceasefire dynamics, rising oil prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Brent crude is consolidating near the $100 per barrel level, keeping global yields elevated and reinforcing concerns about the inflation outlook. At the same time, macro data is beginning to reflect the strain, with European activity—particularly in services—showing signs of weakness under higher energy costs.
Equity markets remain resilient near all-time highs, but internal dispersion is increasing. Software stocks came under pressure after IBM’s results raised questions about AI disruption to traditional business models, while semiconductor names continue to outperform on strong AI-driven...

Major US indices hit fresh record highs yesterday but the contrast between market prices and fundamentals is striking. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, energy markets are volatile and macro data is starting to show strain. Yet risk assets continue to climb, driven less by the physical economy and more by narrative momentum—especially around AI and long-term productivity gains.
The growing gap raises a broader question—are markets still pricing reality, or expectations?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private...

Markets are navigating a fragile calm. The Middle East ceasefire extension isn’t enough to anchor sentiment, as oil volatility persists and uncertainty around supply dynamics lingers. Yet, despite rising energy prices, the US consumer refuses to crack—fueling higher yields and pushing back rate cut expectations.
Across assets, conviction is thin: equities are mixed, the dollar is losing momentum, and investors are increasingly focused on what comes next. With earnings season kicking off, all eyes turn to Tesla—not for the numbers, but for its AI narrative and long-term growth story.
Is this just noise… or the start of something bigger?

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