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Major US indices hit fresh record highs yesterday but the contrast between market prices and fundamentals is striking. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, energy markets are volatile and macro data is starting to show strain. Yet risk assets continue to climb, driven less by the physical economy and more by narrative momentum—especially around AI and long-term productivity gains.
The growing gap raises a broader question—are markets still pricing reality, or expectations?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private...

Markets are navigating a fragile calm. The Middle East ceasefire extension isn’t enough to anchor sentiment, as oil volatility persists and uncertainty around supply dynamics lingers. Yet, despite rising energy prices, the US consumer refuses to crack—fueling higher yields and pushing back rate cut expectations.
Across assets, conviction is thin: equities are mixed, the dollar is losing momentum, and investors are increasingly focused on what comes next. With earnings season kicking off, all eyes turn to Tesla—not for the numbers, but for its AI narrative and long-term growth story.
Is this just noise… or the start of something bigger?

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Oil spikes, then pulls back. Markets sell off, then bounce. Is this the same pattern all over again?
This week kicked off with renewed Middle East tensions shaking sentiment, but the real story may lie beneath the surface. Despite supply risks and ongoing disruptions, oil prices are struggling to hold their gains — pointing to something deeper: demand destruction may already be kicking in.
Meanwhile, equities — especially tech and AI names — continue to show resilience, brushing off macro uncertainty and geopolitical noise. Are investors underestimating the risks, or correctly looking through the volatility?
With key US data ahead...

Markets are walking a tightrope. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, sending oil prices higher and raising fresh questions about global stability. Oil is up, US and European markets are pressured but Asian tech heavy indices are holding up well thanks to encouraging AI news of late.
This week, earnings season is picking up pace, with major companies about to report. Can strong results offset the pressure from higher oil and ongoing conflict?

Listen to find out more!

Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque...