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Rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation fears, pushing global bond yields higher and putting pressure on equities. Even the US Treasury’s announcement to triple the size of today’s 10- to 20-year bond buyback has failed to calm the long end of the yield curve. Scott Bessent says he is “the house now”, but markets are clearly not playing along.
And there is a delicious historical irony. Back in 1992, Bessent was on the other side of the table, working with George Soros as markets forced Britain out of the ERM on Black Wednesday. The lesson then? Fighting fundamentals can...

Brent crude is approaching the psychological $100pb mark as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions keep energy markets on edge. Falling global oil reserves, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and a potential recovery in Chinese crude demand could add further upside pressure to prices.
Higher oil and gas prices are also reviving inflation concerns, pushing bond yields higher and complicating the outlook for central banks.
Meanwhile, technology stocks continue to resist the broader risk-off mood, supported by fresh AI developments and major new partnerships. But the AI story has another side: massive capital spending, rising borrowing requirements, leveraged balance sheets...

Markets kicked off the week on a mixed note. Asian tech stocks followed Wall Street higher on renewed excitement around OpenAI and the race toward AGI, while European equities struggled under the weight of rising energy prices, weak German industrial production and expectations of an ECB rate hike.
The major focus however was the sharp rise in the Japanese yen and the rising risk of a carry unwind. Years of cheap Japanese funding encouraged investors to borrow in yen and pile into higher-yielding assets, pushing classic carry pairs such as AUD/JPY to extreme levels. But today, with the Bank of...