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Markets kicked off the week on a mixed note. Asian tech stocks followed Wall Street higher on renewed excitement around OpenAI and the race toward AGI, while European equities struggled under the weight of rising energy prices, weak German industrial production and expectations of an ECB rate hike.
The major focus however was the sharp rise in the Japanese yen and the rising risk of a carry unwind. Years of cheap Japanese funding encouraged investors to borrow in yen and pile into higher-yielding assets, pushing classic carry pairs such as AUD/JPY to extreme levels. But today, with the Bank of...

Strong US jobs data, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields are increasing pressure on global markets — but tech stocks don’t seem to care. The latest US employment report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September, while escalating Middle East tensions keep crude oil prices elevated and inflation risks alive.
Yet AI enthusiasm continues to support tech valuations. OpenAI’s latest model launch boosted sentiment across the sector, with the rally spreading to Asian chipmakers and technology stocks. Meanwhile, bond markets remain under pressure as the US Treasury prepares bigger buybacks and some of the world’s...

Markets are looking for relief as rising oil prices, sticky inflation and mounting debt keep global bond yields under pressure. Attention now turns to the US jobs report. A softer-than-expected print — ideally accompanied by softer wage growth — could give Fed doves more room, pull yields and the dollar lower, and support equity valuations. But strong jobs data could reinforce inflation fears and keep borrowing costs elevated.
Meanwhile, hawkish policy expectations are building across major central banks, from the Fed to the BoJ, while elevated energy prices are creating very different winners and losers across global markets. Energy-heavy indices...

Oil remains the key driver across global markets, but could Venezuela help cool the pressure? The country is preparing to significantly boost production, thanks to US producers invstment. Yet not all oil is created equal. Venezuela’s crude is generally heavier and sourer than many Middle Eastern grades, making it harder and more expensive to transport and refine. So while additional Venezuelan barrels could weigh on global oil prices, they cannot simply replace disrupted Gulf supply.
Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and hawkish central bank expectations. The ECB, BoJ, RBA, BoE and Fed are all facing pressure...