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Oil remains the key driver across global markets, but could Venezuela help cool the pressure? The country is preparing to significantly boost production, thanks to US producers invstment. Yet not all oil is created equal. Venezuela’s crude is generally heavier and sourer than many Middle Eastern grades, making it harder and more expensive to transport and refine. So while additional Venezuelan barrels could weigh on global oil prices, they cannot simply replace disrupted Gulf supply.
Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and hawkish central bank expectations. The ECB, BoJ, RBA, BoE and Fed are all facing pressure...

BTC just needs a short breather before the next leg up?

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Rising oil prices are once again fueling global inflation fears and pushing bond yields sharply higher, challenging policymakers and investors alike. Global trade tensions are also deepening, and China found itself increasingly isolated at the latest G20 meeting, as concerns over its export-led growth model, industrial subsidies and excess capacity gained broader international support.
In fact, Shein’s unimpressive Hong Kong debut is part of the same story. The changing global trade landscape is putting pressure on the business models of Shein, PDD and Alibaba, while potentially leaving developed economies to deal with deeper cost of living crisis.

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September kicks off on a bearish note as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns, push global bond yields higher and weigh on equity valuations. But markets enter the month with an important cushion: exceptionally strong Q2 earnings on both sides of the Atlantic.
The key question is whether strong earnings can continue to offset rising borrowing costs. European equities still offer a relatively comfortable earnings-yield premium over sovereign bonds, but the picture is tighter in the US, where the S&P 500 earnings yield is now below the US 30-year Treasury yield.
Meanwhile, investors are watching inflation data, increasingly uncomfortable central...