Oil selloff on Ukraine hope may be short-lived

Show notes

European stocks rallied on Trump-fueled hopes of brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine—but that optimism is fading fast. Defense names slid after Rheinmetall’s disappointing results, while BAE and Leonardo offered mixed signals. Meanwhile, Switzerland left Washington with no tariff relief, and a 39% levy looms over exports.
In the US, oil broke below $65pb, jobless claims surged, and inflation expectations jumped—classic stagflation territory. Yet markets are betting on more Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts, especially with Stephen Miran expected to replace Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller floated as the next Fed Chair.
Tech continues to be the market’s virtual comfort zone, as AI demand defies macro noise. Japan’s SoftBank and Sony hit highs, while US chipmakers like Nvidia rallied on tariff protectionism that exempt them from 100% tariffs.
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