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US headline inflation fell to 3.1% on a yearly basis as expected, but headline inflation was slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis. And that small uptick has raised suspicions that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) final stretch in combating inflation may be more challenging than anticipated.
The latter triggered a mini selloff in the 2-year bond right after the data, yet the selloff didn’t last long. The US 2-year yield is about where it was yesterday morning.
With the latest inflation report behind us with minimal fanfare, the Fed officials will lightheartedly keep interest rates steady this month. Economic forecasts and...

The week started on an optimistic note ahead of today’s US inflation update, tomorrow’s FOMC decision and Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) decisions. The US 2-year yield advanced to 4.77% and the 10-year yield tested the 4.30% resistance, but both are down this morning, as bond investors lie in ambush before the US inflation update that will hit the headlines in a couple of hours from now.
Headline CPI in the US is expected to have steadied on a monthly basis thanks to subdued energy prices and the yearly figure may have eased from 3.2%...

Friday’s jobs report from the US was strong. The stronger-than-expected jobs data sent the US 2-year yield to near 4.75%, and the 10-year yield recovered to 4.28%, but the stock traders gave a cheerful reaction to the news that the US jobs market is softening, not collapsing. The latest data suggests that the Fed is one step closer to realizing its Goldilocks scenario: it could win the inflation battle without pushing the economy into recession. Is it too good to be true? This week’s inflation update and the Fed decision will tell.
The economic calendar for the week is heavy....

Yesterday was finally the day that most FX traders have been waiting for since at least a year: the day where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hint that it will finally exit its negative interest rate policy. Precisely, the BoJ Governor said, after his meeting with the Japanese PM - that handling of monetary policy would get tougher from the end of the year. Fundamentally, it is not too early for the BoJ to start hiking its policy rate. But it would be a sudden move – that’s for sure!
In any case, it is more likely than...

US crude plummeted 4% yesterday and sank below the $70pb mark and Brent slipped below $75pb.
Falling energy prices help soften global inflation expectations and keep the central bank doves in charge of the market, along with sufficiently soft economic data that points at the end of the global monetary policy campaign.
The US and European yields continue to fall, the S&P500 and Nasdaq both fell yesterday, while their European peers extended gains regardless of the overbought conditions. The Stoxx 600 closed yesterday’s session above the 470 level and screams: correction!
Listen to find out more!

All eyes on Bitcoin, which looks unstoppable. Is 100'000 USD next in a straight line?

00:00 Intro
00:22 Preview
00:40 Bitcoin
05:03 Ethereum
08:32 Subscribe & Good bye

#crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote

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The central bank doves are forcefully back following a significantly lower-than-expected US JOLTS print, and on the back of a surprisingly dovish comment from an otherwise… hawkish Isabel Schnabel from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Due today, the ADP is expected to print 130K private job additions in the US last month, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast is expected to hint at a sharp decline in Q4 growth to 1.2% from above 5% printed last quarter. If that’s the case, the Fed doves will remain in charge of the market, but the everything rally will likely turn into a…...

US yields rebounded and major indices sold off yesterday as markets have priced in a beyond-reasonable amount of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) for next year based on a soft-landing scenario. All eyes are on the US jobs data for some comfort… that may or may not come.
Either soft data will cement the Fed rate cut bets or robust data will inject uncertainty and volatility to the market. In this context, the JOLTS data is expected to show lesser job additions in the US in October. But note that the US jobs market was impacted by strikes...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell pushed back against the rate cut bets at his speech given in Atlanta last Friday. He is of course playing the card of ‘high for long’ rates to tame inflation, yet he hinted that the Fed will probably not hike rates when it meets this month. Fed rate cut expectations went through the roof when it became clear that the Fed will stay pat again this month. The US 2-year fell to nearly 4.50% on Friday, the 10-year yield tipped a toe below the 4.20% mark. Gold spiked to $2150 per ounce this...

Here we are, saying thanks and goodbye to the excellent month of November for both bond and equity markets. US bonds rallied, and the bond yields melted starting from the end of October remember, and the melting bond yields offered to the S&P500 one of its biggest gains for a month of November.
The debate now is, will such a strong month of November spoil our Santa rally, or the US stock markets will continue to extend gains in December?
Good news is, inflation falls on both sides of the Atlantic, and energy prices look much less threatening given that...