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Optimism is on the menu ahead of today’s much-awaited US inflation report, and positive vibes will likely continue if today’s US inflation report comes in sufficiently soft. A consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg hints that US headline inflation may have gently increased from 3.1% to 3.2% in December, while core inflation has certainly eased from 4% to 3.8% - the slowest pace since May 2021. Data in line, or ideally softer than expected, will keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves in charge of the market and could further boost appetite in stocks and bonds – although the spectacular bond...

After many fake news attempts, will see a Bitcoin Spot ETF finally today? Or will there be a delay due to security issues at the SEC? Stay tuned!

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00:34 Bitcoin / ETF
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The World Bank said yesterday that it expects growth to fall to 2.2% for the period that includes 2020 and 2024 and that’s the slowest 5-year period since 1990-1994. The slowing global growth expectations somehow keep the global yields subdued, but at 4% yield, the US 10-year bond is expensive and may not have much upside potential left unless fresh data points at softening activity, and ideally a further weakness in consumer prices.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq consolidate a touch below the December high – and both very close to their ATH. The uncertainty and the lack of clear direction...

The US equities followed up on the European stock market gains on Monday; technology stocks gained the most and their precious contribution to the S&P500 pushed the latter up by more than 1.40% yesterday, as Nasdaq 100 rallied past 2%. US politicians’ agreement on a 2024 spending bill, Chinese authorities’ announcement of further stimulus measures and sliding oi prices helped boosting optimism.
Investors are holding their breath before Thursday’s inflation report which could give a reason to the doves to remain in charge of the market, or not…
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The New Year unsurprisingly kicked off with a hangover for both stock and bond markets, as investors began the year by closing their positions and taking profit following an impressive two-month rally that was boosted by the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon start cutting the interest rates and cut them thoroughly throughout this year. Last week’s jobs data from the US came in stronger than expected, yet again.
As such, there is no surprise that we see the US 2-year yield rebound to 4.40% and the 10-year yield return past 4% - its biggest weekly advance of...

Here we are, on the last trading day of the year. We had a year completely different than what was expected.
The biggest takeaway of this year is the birth of ChatGPT which propelled AI right into the middle of our lives. Nasdaq 100 stocks close the year at an ATH, Nvidia – which was the biggest winner of this year’s AI rally dwarfed everything that compared to it. Besides Nvidia, ChatGPT’s sugar daddy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google and Tesla – the so-called Magnificent 7 generated almost all of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100’s returns this year. And thanks to...

The US bond and stocks extended their rally on the back of soft US economic data and another strong US bond auction. The US dollar fell sharply against most majors, allowing the euro, sterling, and the yen to extend gains into the year end. The rally in the sovereign space looks overdone, hence the rally in stocks and the selloff in US dollar looks overstretched; there is a rising risk of a wild correction when the euphoria comes to an end.
Because the US has recorded the biggest two-month easing in financial conditions in its history because of the impressive...

The barrel of American crude finally cleared the $74/75pb resistance range on the mounting geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and traded at $76pb on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, the dovish Fed expectations continued to remain in the driver seat and drive the US stock and bond markets higher.
The US dollar remains under a decent selling pressure, gold extends gains on the back of softening US yields and the EURUSD continues to push higher above the 1.10 level on the back of hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) commentaries. Yet the rally in the Japanese yen starts giving signs of exhaustion into...

The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that’s below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully...

Appetite in European stocks waned yesterday, yet the US counterparts recovered Wednesday losses and closed the session more than 1% higher as the latest economic data pointed at a certain slowdown.
Today's inflation print is the Fed puzzle's last crucial piece. If today’s PCE print comes in as soft as expected, or ideally softer-than-expected, we shall see the rally in bonds – and perhaps in stocks – extend the Santa rally.
Presently, swaps point at six 25bp cut in the US by this time next year. That’s a 150bp cut in total. It means that the US rates are expected...