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Welcome to June. So we’re in June. The month of May ended with a whopping 6% advance for the S&P500, defying the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ adage on Wall Street that points to a generally unfavourable seasonal trend for the month. But the S&P500’s performance is hiding a few issues on the US debt and global trade fronts: trade tensions are rising between the US and EU/China, oil prices are up on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and risk appetite is limited this morning, except for defense and energy companies.
This week, investors will watch the PMI...

What began as early trade optimism yesterday – triggered by the US Court of International Trade deeming Trump’s tariffs illegal – turned out to be too good to be true. Things quickly got messy when Trump appealed the decision, prompting the US Court of Appeals to pause the ruling in order to review arguments from both sides. Meanwhile, a separate federal court issued a similar but more limited decision on the tariffs. As a result, the initial ruling that had cancelled the tariffs is now effectively on hold.
So it’s under this heavy cloud of uncertainty that the early risk-on...

Nvidia below past earnings despite the Chinese hit and a US court deemed Trump’s tariffs illegal. The markets are up this morning, the US dollar gains, gold and franc retreat.
US and European leaders are scheduled to speak today, but the court ruling may shift the tone of those talks. At this point, it’s unclear whether trade negotiations are even necessary anymore.
European markets are closed today due to Ascension Day, so while futures are trading higher, the thin volumes could exaggerate market moves – and it looks like the good news will get the support.
Listen to find out...

Market mood is astonishingly great this week on the back of a global decline in yields, triggered by the Japanese government’s will to adjust the size of its bond issuance amid a selloff in long-maturity bonds sent 30- to 40-year JGB yields to all-time highs. The rally in Japanese bonds helped pull the US 30-year yield below the 5% mark. And optimism from falling sovereign yields was compounded by better-than-expected US durable goods orders in April and a surprise rebound in consumer confidence in May. The Conference Board’s gauge posted the biggest monthly gain in four years and exceeded all...

The week started on a slow but hopeful note for European markets, with expectations that Trump’s latest 50% tariff threat on European imports would accelerate negotiations but that market optimism fascinates me. European markets are flirting with ATH levels, US futures were also up yesterday—but the reality is that with every piece of incoming information, the collective welfare deteriorates. Still, moving forward, fresh deals between the US and major trade partners could further boost market sentiment and send indices on both sides of the Atlantic to fresh ATH levels—but whether that optimism lasts is yet to be seen. The economic...

Trade headlines are accelerating again. Markets ended last week on a sour note after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on European imports by June 1st, prompting a sharp selloff in major US and European indices. He also warned that Apple could face a 25% tariff unless it relocates its production to the US. Yet, sentiment has shifted sharply this morning. The Nikkei 225 rose more than 1.7%, buoyed by hopes that the US and Japan are progressing toward a trade deal. European and US futures rebounded on news that the 50% EU tariff threat will be...

The selloff in US equities eased yesterday as pressure in the bond space declined. But the news is far from reassuring for a sustainable relief: US politicians continue to turn a blind eye to the stress building in the sovereign bond space. The House of Representatives passed Trump’s ‘beautiful’ tax bill yesterday—with just one vote. But one vote is all it takes to send the bill to the Senate, which is narrowly controlled by the same Republicans who proposed it. As such, US yields have eased slightly but the crisis is far from over. The US dollar was better bid...

Bitcoin just cracked its ATH, let's go!

00:00 Intro
00:23 Disclaimer
00:27 Preview
00:47 Coinbase
02:26 Bitcoin
06:44 Ripple
10:20 Subscribe & Good bye

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It’s Thursday, and so far this week, US debt concerns have overshadowed Middle East optimism, trade tensions, and even a fresh all-time high for Bitcoin. The turning point was last Friday’s credit outlook downgrade by Moody’s, which was quickly followed by a political debate around the budget. In this episode we will dive into the guts of the US debt market, why US could afford to push its debt exponentially higher, why it could no longer do so, and what are the risks and alternatives.
In the markets, the surge in yields weighed heavily on equities. The S&P 500 dropped...

US equities retreated yesterday—ending a six-day rally—and the US dollar weakened as the selloff in long-term US Treasuries continued. Crude oil jumped on reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Safe haven assets surged, while the US dollar was left behind in the safe-haven race. Option traders remain pessimistic about the dollar’s prospects for 2025. The one-year risk reversals—a gauge that reflects whether investors are hedging more with calls or puts—have dropped to the most negative level on record, according to Bloomberg. Listen to find out more!