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The selloff in US treasuries continued yesterday over concerns that Donald Trump’s presidency would boost spending and inflation in the US, and make the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) job of bringing inflation back to the 2% target more difficult. The selloff slowed after weaker-than-expected ADP report.
Across the Atlantic, The 10-year gilt yield advanced to the highest level since 2008 yesterday and broke above the peak levels that were reached during Liz Truss’ historic mini budget crisis. Sterling fell against a broadly bought US dollar, but also against the weakening euro.
The barrel of US crude remembered what it was like...

Good news was bad news yesterday and they even wiped out the optimism that Nvidia initially created around AI with the announcement of new products.
The US released a set of higher-than-expected ISM data, suggesting that non-manufacturing activity was better than expected in December – in contradiction to the S&P’s PMI data released a day before. But what really dampened the market mood was that prices paid by companies unexpectedly - and meaningfully - jumped to the highest levels since 2023. Separately, JOLTS data hinted at an unexpected jump in job openings in November to above 8 mio jobs openings....

Early year worries that the AI rally would fizzle out were rapidly wiped out at the start of this week by several news, including Microsoft’s announcement to be willing to spend $80bn on data centers – which pushed the stock up to 1.4% yesterday and Foxconn’s announcement of a 42% surge in its December sales thanks to AI-driven demand.
But mood beyond tech was murkier. The Dow Jones for example was slightly lower on Monday, as US yields spiked.
The US dollar couldn’t benefit from higher yields as Washington Post reported that Trump’s policies wouldn’t be as harsh as promised....

Here we are, the last day and the last trading day of the year. It’s now been about two years that ChatGPT was launched and it’s been two years that the AI buzz pushed some US Big Tech companies to ... the sky, really.
The consensus is that 2025 should be a good year, that the easing central bank policies and falling yields should help the US Big Tech rally to further broaden toward the non-tech pockets of the market, and beyond the US.
In FX, the US dollar index is having its best year since 2015 and could continue...

Last week ended on a positive note for the European stocks and negative note for the US stocks. Friday saw the S&P500 dive more than 1%, while the Stoxx 600 closed 0.67% higher. We can’t drive major conclusions in a holiday-shortened and thin-trading-volume week, but last week’s price action looked pretty close to the narrative of rotation from tech to non-tech stocks that many investors expect to be the theme of next year.
Asian markets opened the week on a negative note. The Japanese Nikkei index and Australian stocks were offered this Monday with trading volumes nearly 20% lower the...

Those glued to their screens, hoping for Santa’s arrival, were left disappointed. The major US indices weren’t in good shape yesterday even after a mixed bag of US jobs data. The major US equity indices were softer as Bitcoin gave back Xmas day gains.
In China, equities are better bid since Chinese authorities pledge on Tuesday to sell a record amount of 3 trillion yuan worth of special treasury bonds next year to give support to the economy. In Japan, the Nikkei index surged past the 40’000 mark on the back of a weakening yen as the bears are out...

Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy.
But even though the equity markets looked joyful on Monday, the US 2-year papers remained offered and the US dollar erased earlier losses to finish the session higher against most majors.
Meagre news and data flow should keep the focus on a more hawkish Fed. The pullbacks in the US dollar are probably good opportunities to buy the dips against most...

US stocks rebounded and the US dollar retreated on Friday on the back of softer-than-expected PCE numbers from the US and in the absence of major economic data, this Xmas-shortened week could see a further rebound in the US equities – no one wants to miss the Santa rally – and a further retreat in the US dollar in favour of its major counterparts. Yet, beyond tactical trades based on last week’s softer-than-expected PCE measures, the story remains unchanged. The core PCE in the US has been moving up since the summer dip and settled at 2.8% for the second...

A week packed with central bank decisions is coming to an end with a sour taste in everybody’s mouth. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut rates by 25bp was fully meaningless and the incoming data is a proof. The US Q3 growth was revised to 3.1% from 2.8% printed earlier, the sales growth was revised higher from 3 to 3.3% and core PCE priced – though lower than the quarter before – was also revised slightly higher to 2.20%, raising worries that even the two rate cuts from the Fed next year would be too much. In the UK,...

Sometimes, the truth is hard to say—and even harder to hear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced another 25bp cut as widely expected and priced in, but hinted that there will be just about two rate cuts throughout next year.
The market reaction was very aggressive, of course. The US yields and the dollar jumped, the S&P500 sold off nearly 3%. The Fed probably spoiled this year’s Santa rally, as its hawkish shift could trigger a deeper correction across US equity markets.
In commodities, oil sold off and gold tipped a toe below the $2600 per ounce and below its 100-DMA....