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US jobs are worse than they seem, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have already fallen behind the curve. But will this trigger bigger or faster rate cuts? It depends on inflation. US August PPI is out today, and tomorrow we get CPI – the numbers will set the tone for US rates, the dollar and equities.
Elsewhere, tech stocks are in focus with Apple slipping post-iPhone reveal and Nebius jumping 50% on a $17.4B Microsoft AI deal. CoreWeave, Nvidia, Broadcom and Oracle also see big moves. Meanwhile, French markets shrug off another PM change, but bond spreads and Fitch’s...

France’s government just collapsed after a no-confidence vote — but markets barely blinked. European markets are under some pressure this morning but the euro is holding its ground. Why are investors so calm while French politics descend into gridlock? Have the risks already been priced in, or is a sudden shock still waiting around the corner, just like the UK’s mini-budget meltdown back in 2022? Time will tell.
Meanwhile in the US, weak jobs data fuel bets on aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts — maybe even 50bp in September. Stocks hover near record highs, the dollar eases and JPMorgan warns...

The US economy added just 22,000 jobs last month – a big miss versus expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% and revisions showed job losses in June. Manufacturing shed another 12K jobs, hinting at deeper cracks. Markets now believe the Fed has no choice: rate cuts are coming, probably more than one, and maybe more than 50bp.
But here’s the twist – inflation is still muted, even as tariffs drive up producer prices. Will Thursday’s CPI finally reveal the pressure at the consumer level? Or will weak inflation force the Fed’s hand even further?
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit...

Is this a bear trap or a real correction we have to fear in the markets?

00:00 Intro
00:24 Disclaimer
00:28 Preview
00:49 Bitcoin
02:40 Ethereum
04:38 World Liberty Financial / Sky
06:13 Subscribe & Good bye

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Markets are bracing for a decisive US jobs report that could set the stage for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. Yesterday’s weak ADP print, higher jobless claims and softer labour signals from ISM all point to a cooling jobs market—boosting risk appetite as investors bet on rate cuts. The S&P 500 climbed back near record highs, while yields slipped across the curve, with the 30-year at 4.84%. But the story doesn’t end here: weaker jobs data today could cement expectations for September cuts, while next week’s inflation release could reignite long-end selling if tariff pressures show up in CPI....

Global markets kicked off September on shaky ground. Equities and bonds sold off across the board, with US, European and Asian indices under pressure as long-term yields pushed toward multi-decade highs. Investors are demanding bigger returns for holding debt weighed down by soaring deficits, sticky inflation and political gridlock — leaving corporate valuations exposed.
But while traditional assets bled, alternative plays caught fire. Gold smashed fresh records, silver extended its rally, oil surged after Ukrainian strikes rattled Russian refining capacity and Bitcoin found strong demand on dips. The question now: is this just a rotation into havens, or the start...

Markets kicked off the week in slow motion with US and Canadian exchanges shut for Labour Day — but Alibaba’s AI-fuelled surge sent the Hang Seng higher, while in Europe, PMI data offered a glimpse of recovery despite French political risks still casting a long shadow. Gold blasted through fresh records, silver soared to levels not seen in over a decade, and oil bulls are circling key resistance once again.
All eyes now turn to euro area CPI: will inflation brush up against the ECB’s 2% target and keep policy steady, or will growth concerns spark a dovish turn? The...

Chinese equities surged to fresh three-year highs while India’s Nifty 50 rebounded after Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi joined other EM leaders in Shanghai to tighten ties against US trade pressure.
In the US, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge came exactly in line with expectations — so perfect it sparked doubts over credibility. Now all eyes turn to Friday’s jobs report, the first since leadership changes at the BLS. With consensus calling for just 74K new jobs, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
In Europe, inflation data and French political uncertainties are closely watched. But despite uncertainties, the euro...

Investors shrugged off Nvidia’s latest earnings report despite slower AI growth signals with shares swinging around their all-time highs. Analysts lifted price targets, keeping optimism alive. Broadly, S&P500 companies reported a strong Q2, with earnings growth near 12%, surpassing expectations, while Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations support further equity gains.
On the data front, US Q2 GDP came in at 3.3%, real sales rose 6.8% and core inflation remained sticky at 2% keeping markets cautiously optimistic. Trade tensions continue as the US ends the de minimis exemption on low-value goods, potentially adding inflationary pressure. In Europe, August inflation data and...