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US equities ended Q2 at all-time highs. While headlines point to optimism around trade negotiations and potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, much of the recent rally appears to be driven by continued enthusiasm around AI.
On the trade front, discussions with Japan remain tense, and talks with the EU may result in a universal 10% tariff without key sectors—like autos and luxury—receive exemptions. On the Fed front, Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned against rushing to cut rates, especially as the impact of new tariffs on inflation and growth remains unclear. Last week’s hotter-than-expected core PCE data reinforces that message,...

De-escalation of the Middle East tensions and encouraging news from the trade front improve risk taking across global financial markets, leading gold and oil lower and boosting appetite for major currencies. The US dollar remains under pressure however on looming US debt worries while the Swiss franc remains in demand despite optimism globally.
This week, investors will focus on European inflation figures, Trump’s tax bill—aimed to pass before the July 4th holiday, the latest US jobs report and a series of final PMI prints. In energy markets, oil prices are worth watching as they give back the Middle East–led gains....

The month of June is approaching its end with US equities having rebounded to their all-time high levels, fully brushing off the trade-war-led selloff between February and April this year.
The rally looks stretched considering the US debt risks, high valuations, trade uncertainties and hardly funded dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. But stretched doesn’t mean it won’t continue. If investors are fed a steady diet of sugar, asset prices could keep inflating. And Trump may eventually give them what they want. The US and China have apparently reached a trade truce, the US administration said that 10 more deals could...

Trump denied earlier intelligence reports suggesting that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused only limited damage. On the contrary, he claimed the operation was a historic success and even declared the war over — ‘except that it could maybe restart soon.’ Still, the US and Iran are scheduled to meet for diplomatic talks in Iran this weekend, which appears to be a signal that Trump genuinely wants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Oil is lower, US dollar is lower as well despite Powell’s reluctance to cut rates amid tariff uncertainties. But Powell could be bypassed by...

Tensions in the Middle East are deescalating and energy prices ease.
Easing stress in energy markets is excellent news for everyone who doesn’t want to see higher oil prices translating into accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy. The combination of Middle East de-escalation and rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations sent the S&P 500 more than 1% higher—almost near a record high—while the Nasdaq printed a fresh closing high. The US dollar fell. But trade, debt and geopolitical risks loom and market mood feels overly optimistic when risks are taken in the consideration.
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Middle East tensions suddenly waned after Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar — having reportedly informed the US in advance. As a result, the missiles were intercepted. President Trump called Iran’s move ‘weak’ and announced a few hours ago that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. Crude tumbled, gold and US dollar eased, and risk taking is improved.
Gains in US indices are also supported by rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, while European indices remain under the pressure of trade uncertainties into the July 9th deadline.
Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may temper...

The week kicked off with a jump in oil prices as the US got involved in Middle East tensions, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities with what they call ‘bunker busters’, oil prices jumped at the open, but gains have been given back since then, haven assets don’t show a particular sign of stress... Monday markets look like business as usual.
Risks however are looming, and headlines could – maybe – wake up the pessimists?!
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The worsening global geopolitical weather keeps investors in a cautious mode, and will likely prevent them from taking too much risk before the weekend. While the news that the US is giving itself two weeks to decide whether to intervene in Iran – which is slightly better than earlier reports suggesting they would go in this weekend – has somehow eased tensions, looming uncertainties pushed US and European equities lower yesterday. I’m not sure the US buying itself time can be interpreted as a sign of de-escalation.
Energy, defense and haven stocks remain in demand, while investors will certainly refrain...

‘Someone has to pay,’ said Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at yesterday’s post-decision presser, after the Fed kept rates unchanged as widely expected – and priced in – by global markets. Stocks fell despite lower yields.
The US dollar was in doji mode yesterday but is stronger this morning, perhaps supported by a relatively cautious Fed tone and some flight to safety. There are rumours the US could become directly involved in Middle East tensions as soon as this weekend. That alone could attract defensive flows into the dollar ahead of a potentially critical weekend – regardless of Fed...