Mixed reaction to extended Middle East ceasefire

00:00:00: The Middle East ceasefire was extended.

00:00:02: But uncertainties too.

00:00:03: Then headlines change fast and market reaction is volatile, sometimes unpredictable as well.

00:00:09: In this context earnings continue to flow in To give investors something other than the Middle East talk about.

00:00:15: And Tesla's duty report is earning after the bell.

00:00:18: today will revive debate regarding whether its AI growth story could overtake an overweight on a company struggles in the EV space.

00:00:28: So welcome to Swissco.

00:00:29: daily Market Talk is Wednesday, April twenty-second.

00:00:34: I'm Ipekos Kardeshkaya and everything i will discuss in this video is based on my own opinion and analysis And This Is Not Financial Advice.

00:00:51: So the ceasefire In The Middle East has been extended.

00:00:54: Yes despite Donald Trump's early threats that it was unlikely to be extended bomb the heck out of their country's infrastructure, especially power plants.

00:01:05: That is yet another signal or proof that the US is probably losing control in this region and it's important to look past a noise injected into financial markets and headlines by tweets official announcements and statements from the White House, because they carry an increasingly lighter weight in terms of what will happen in the Middle East.

00:01:32: So the US futures are higher this morning.

00:01:34: At the time I'm talking here, following a retreat on yesterday's trading session while European equity features were in the negative before and they're turning positive as there are news that Iran could eventually accept to join into talks if the U S lifts is blockade and the US could reportedly do so according to the latest news.

00:01:54: now looking at Asian equity complex They're also trading with little conviction This Morning On The Idea That This Conflict is prolonging dangerously beyond a few weeks as it was announced at the start of the war.

00:02:07: The Strait of Hormuz remains almost closed, the US has put itself in very difficult position that I can no longer politically or geopolitically justify and nobody really knows what's next for this war.

00:02:20: again A hint this morning that Iran could eventually agree to talk with

00:02:26: U.S.,

00:02:26: and that they could lift the blockade.

00:02:29: for Iran to come to the negotiating table is giving some hope this morning, but...to be seen.

00:02:35: What's clear however?

00:02:36: it that energy reserves are drying up across the globe?

00:02:39: It has said that Europeans now left with around six weeks of oil and energy reserves after which we might see further disruptions heading to shore in Europe And beyond just energy prices soaring.

00:02:51: We could eventually see energy scarcity mass flight cancellations.

00:02:56: But despite prolonged risk, the energy prices are giving a muted reaction to extended ceasefire news this morning.

00:03:02: U.S.

00:03:03: credit would jump more than five percent.

00:03:04: testing a key Fibonacci resistance yesterday through the upside is slightly down this morning trading just below the ninety-three dollar per barrel mark.

00:03:13: as the tightening supply story is now being countered by it demand destruction story.

00:03:19: keeping up side pressure is limited when rallies occur here.

00:03:23: And if you lean into technical levels, the ninety four dollar per barrel level which has a major thirty eight point two percent people not to retracement on year-to-date rally in American crit price should distinguish between their actual bearish consolation zone and the continuation of the Year To Date rebound.

00:03:42: And on the upside, above a hundred dollar per barrel level we will likely see solid psychological resistance because this is a level that could give more weight to the falling demand story of higher energy prices than to supply tightening.

00:03:57: So in summary, it's quite difficult to talk here because the headlines change as I talked.

00:04:01: But the short term volatility and oil prices set to continue while all the prices will likely remain at significantly higher levels than before the Iran war started.

00:04:10: The chances of a sustainable upside move remained limited As the higher energy price is lower demand.

00:04:17: but that just theory And latest news actually backed the fact That European refineries are cutting their demands due to higher prices.

00:04:25: It not true for everyone.

00:04:26: You know who doesn't cut demand?

00:04:28: American consumers.

00:04:29: Their consumption has not been impacted by the bloody war in the Middle East that disrupted global supply chains and sent energy prices soaring egg loss to globe since almost two months now, In fact yesterday's comic data from The US show that the U S retail sales jumped buy mos in a year.

00:04:48: That was expected because those are not inflation adjusted figures.

00:04:51: So part of that jump is obviously naturally attributed.

00:04:56: we saw in oil prices, but the report also showed that almost every single category including furniture electronics to general merchandise also printed increases and that matches with bank announcements last week during their earnings announcement.

00:05:13: That US consumer spending remains resilient for how long?

00:05:17: I don't know, i guess we will see but for now Americans continue to spend.

00:05:22: They get less than a dollar spent!

00:05:23: But they spent nonetheless.

00:05:25: As such the US two-year yield jumped yesterday as economic data from the U.S didn't bring any urge for cutting interest rates From the Fed when inflation is also expected pick up in coming months.

00:05:36: due to Middle East pressures The US two year yield jumped at three point eighty percent level.

00:05:40: Then the Fed chair nominee Kevin Ward said At his Senate hearing Yesterday that he would not be puppet to the White House and US President, that he would make monetary policy decisions independently himself.

00:05:56: So maybe I'm thinking that also help pushing yields higher in the US yesterday.

00:06:01: Mr.

00:06:01: Walsh, however insisted that rate cuts are fairer than balance sheet expansions for monetary policy and good for everyone because yes they mostly benefit people who actually do have exposure to financial markets not just to everybody.

00:06:17: but you would like work with the US Treasury too.

00:06:20: make this balance sheet smaller.

00:06:22: Well that's great news.

00:06:23: but the problem is, timing is challenging as world is now dumping their US Treasury holdings due to hectic and no longer reliable US foreign policies.

00:06:33: So I can't wait to see how this balance sheet reduction will play out.

00:06:37: In the FX markets, The U.S.

00:06:38: dollar which was a clear winner in the first weeks of the Iranian war lost that positive momentum awhile ago and the Dollar Index is now back at its pre-war levels and falling.

00:06:50: The euro dollar on the other hand successfully rebounded before reaching a key Fibonacci resistance on Trump's inauguration today.

00:06:57: appreciation as the dollar yen hovers it touched below the one hundred sixty level but barely test this level on words that an additional pet pyre could eventually trigger a direct effects intervention from the Japanese authorities and watch out in speculator position.

00:07:15: Elsewhere, they'd also show that the producer prices in Korea hit a three-year high aiming rising energy prices due to the Middle East War as the KOSPI index slightly retreated from an all time high level.

00:07:28: At the time I'm talking here we were talking yesterday about how technology is now coming back to this stage of safe alternative for other sectors as AI demand remain resilient faced with war news and energy crisis.

00:07:42: then sector continues.

00:07:44: Well, quite rapidly.

00:07:45: that narrator remains in play as we are moving toward the earnings season.

00:07:49: And you know what?

00:07:50: The Korean memory chip makers have pretty strong pricing power right now due to a deep shortage In this membership market meaning that they could very well reflect the price increases onto their customers To protect their margins therefore.

00:08:04: The rally here will unlikely fizzle out of duty cost pressures.

00:08:08: Elsewhere in technology, Tesla is expected to announce its latest quarterly update today after the bell.

00:08:14: The consensus points to a roughly thirteen-to seventeen percent revenue growth last quarter fluttered by an easy comparison base on Mr Elon Musk's political mess remember?

00:08:29: Good.

00:08:29: And happily for Tesla, the real debate here is in how many cars Tesla managed to sell last quarter and how much it earned from these sales?

00:08:38: It's whether Tesla can convince investors that its still an AI growth story better than a slowing car maker because challenges are piling up.

00:08:47: deliveries already miss expectations pricing pressure fading EV subsidies and aging lineup or waiting on auto margins.

00:08:55: then heavy key packs which just Expected to be more than twenty billion Westerners this year is raising concerns about cash burn in the company and execution risk.

00:09:04: And, The Chinese competition's very rough indeed as well because BYD just announced aggressive recharging numbers yesterday saying that its new cars will charge from ten to ninety eight percent In just six minutes and charging thirty five percent we'll take up two one minute only.

00:09:22: So again, that backdrop the ball has shifted quite dramatically and Marcus will care less about rebel taxis, AI and new growth engines to justify the company's valuation because Tesla as other Western car makers is now falling off the EV race.

00:09:41: They're only left for investors still believe in the strength of their overall market environment and democratic values.

00:09:48: that however are increasingly at jeopardy today and Tesla's peer ratios stands near three hundred twenty two days.

00:09:55: I'm talking here so let say good luck to Elon Musk fingers.

00:10:01: So this is all for today, I'm Yipega Skardishkaya and thank you for joining me!

00:10:05: And Thank You For All Your Beautiful And Supportive

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