What war?

00:00:00: Major U.S.

00:00:00: indices hit record high levels yesterday, yes as technology remained the dominant force to the upside with semi-conductor names and hyperscalars extending their gaze even as geopolitical uncertainty builds in the Middle East And markets appear to have developed a reflex, absorb shock then resume trend Oil volatility, currency hedging & weakening.

00:00:22: macroecomic indicators on other hand are still very much present but they're increasingly overshadowed by investors who have this renewed appetite for AI companies.

00:00:33: But risk versus obviously and headline driven moves are too close to be fully ignored.

00:00:38: still so welcome to Swissco's daily market.

00:00:41: talk is Thursday, April twenty third.

00:00:45: I'm Epeco Scaradeschkea.

00:00:46: we will discuss a lot of things today again but before we do please keep in mind that opinions on my own And This Is Not Financial Advice.

00:01:03: So if... You handed a market chart to an alien of any of the big indices in the world, including

00:01:11: U.S.,

00:01:11: European or technology-heavy Asian Indices?

00:01:14: Well he would barely guess that this planet is being shaken by intense geopolitical tensions That brought the transit at one of these planets most critical chop points towards near halt.

00:01:27: This situation has been going on for nearly two months threatening a man imposed energy shortage across to planets and that there is no light at the end of the tunnel just yet.

00:01:38: They wouldn't guess either, that the world these planet's leaders prefer tweeting threats on their social media platforms as a new form.

00:02:01: But it is extended because these two countries, US and Iran are failing to find a common ground to agree.

00:02:07: And there's also probably too much ego & reputation damage for either party to let go.

00:02:12: Alas, technology investors couldn't care less.

00:02:15: They actually care increasingly less because Van Axe's Smy Conductor ETF rallied in the thirteenth of past fourteen trading sessions on renewed AI optimism.

00:02:25: Google on the other hand gained more than two percent yesterday after revealing a new TPU chip designed to make AI competing faster and cheaper while Amazon also gained more then two per cent during that same session as well.

00:02:39: after announcing a five billion US dollar investment in AI's new rising star, Anthropic on top of the eight billion us dollars that they already committed into the company and said there could be twenty billion US dollars more to invest in.

00:02:54: A deal that obviously includes something else from Anthropic will be spending over a hundred billion US dollars on Amazon's web services.

00:03:02: Over ten years.

00:03:04: Circular?

00:03:05: Yes, but investors have now digested the circular nature of these AI deals or they simply find out this is better than the war exposed stocks allows.

00:03:15: that circularity is not showing up between ASML and TSMC, one of its biggest clients to let it actually complete.

00:03:22: That's new machines!

00:03:23: New gear are just too pricey in that they will hold off on deploying the latest gear through two thousand twenty nine to save money.

00:03:32: There's one problem that ASML is the only provider of advanced chip making machines.

00:03:37: Anyway, what's really interesting right now on a macroeconomic level?

00:03:40: Is that we see pretty much the same sell-off and recovery pattern than last April after the so called Liberation Day.

00:03:47: remember!

00:03:48: The choice of words here also makes me smile.

00:03:51: year in so after THAT day because the US just released week ago a web platform to refund taxes that have been illegally collected over.

00:04:02: But while trade tensions and uncertainties continued, the major US and other world indices just kept rallying.

00:04:09: And this is what we see today a dip on initial shock and rebound to all-time high levels though The situation today is worse than it was before the initial shock.

00:04:19: so It's almost safe to say that no matter the news the market rallies.

00:04:23: but of course gains also come with risk of sharp Reversals as energy crisis is looming in really building up Because the US crew was trading about a hundred dollar per barrel psychological mark again this morning on extended uncertainties in the Middle East, while Brent's crew traded past one hundred and six dollars per barrel level.

00:04:43: The highest levels in more than two weeks!

00:04:47: And the latter is weighing on appetite in equities this morning.

00:04:50: US and European futures are right now pointing at lower open, while Japanese Nikkei Index & Cosby Index in South Korea also retreat from all-time high levels.

00:05:02: But one thing that's quite clear today, technology have indices and energy stocks outperforming other sectors as the economic outlook globally deteriorates due to higher energy prices And further upside is possible for crude oil prices, but gains will likely remain short-lived as at these levels the demand for oils slows down enough to contain a further upside.

00:05:28: So far The one hundred and twenty dollar per barrel level has indeed acted As it's solid resistance today bullish moves and I don't really think that we would see levels like One hundred fifty two hundred dollars per barrel Level when recession talk is looming as well.

00:05:42: so speaking of underlying economies The PMI data today will give an idea of the impact of higher energy prices on several world economies.

00:05:51: While figures like to point out slowing activity in US and Europe, so rising price pressures everywhere will also likely keep the central bank expectations, the central banks doves quite contained as yesterday UK announced its latest CPI figure and these figures came just to confirm the rising price pressure in the UK driven by high energy costs.

00:06:13: Core CPI was slightly lower than expected.

00:06:16: That was a slight bright spot in that report, but it didn't change.

00:06:20: the expectation that inflation UK is making a U-turn today on this unexpected event of war in the Middle East and will not only prevent Bank of England from cutting interest rates forced the UK policy makers to tighten their monetary policy.

00:06:37: Alas, the latter didn't help.

00:06:39: Cable gain ground yesterday as higher rates into a slowing economic outlook is not necessarily appetizing for FX traders.

00:06:46: Globally The US dollar is gaining feel again these days but slower compared with the first day of the Iran war As some investors still prefer hedging higher energy risks and rising energy prices.

00:06:59: the US dollar and well another way of positive pressure on oil prices globally could give the U.S.

00:07:04: dollar a short-term boost because crude oil is negotiated in u.s.

00:07:08: dollar terms.

00:07:09: when longer run, the US economic outlook is also weakening an appetite for the us dollar.

00:07:14: globally.

00:07:14: it's weakening aswell but happily for investors technology stories masking to deteriorating fundamentals off the US.

00:07:21: And this why we see widening gap between S&P five hundred now like another major US indices versus what really going on in the fundamentals and economic data allows us how markets function.

00:07:34: In site technology, Tesla announced its first quarter earnings yesterday after the closing bell in the West and numbers actually came in line with market expectations.

00:07:44: The revenue grew at sixteen percent last quarter from a year earlier.

00:07:48: thanks to an easy comparison.

00:07:49: as this time of last year the sales at Tesla were tumbling but operating expenses ballooned as well.

00:07:55: they balloon thirty seven percent nearly three point.

00:07:58: eighty billion US dollars.

00:08:00: And more boringly the company ramps up is KPEX spending plans to keep up with the AR race and rivals this year.

00:08:09: And that's basically three years of combined spending for the company, so it is huge!

00:08:14: As such, the shares first popped in day after hours trading but reversed these losses.

00:08:19: Elon Musk has been incredibly successful at selling his technology dreams to the world helped by Cash Machine, Tesla sales that help keeping investors on board for years… But today, that cash machine is sputtering.

00:08:33: So unless Elon Musk's new projects, Robotaxies, humanoid robots and AI start spitting money investors will be pulling back.

00:08:41: It is quite very difficult to put a price tag on Tesla.

00:08:45: still the company currently trades at a peer ratio of nearly three hundred twenty.

00:08:49: if it traded near a peer ratios say off.

00:08:53: Well, a share price would be around thirty six dollars.

00:08:55: Share only of course is very linear calculation and doesn't take into account the growth potential off new technologies that Tesla is percing.

00:09:04: but it gives you warning than when you trade company like Tesla or You should make sure to understand as your funding dream of Elon Musk which could change the world?

00:09:13: Yes But also carries high risk.

00:09:17: So this is all for today, I'm Ipek Oskar Deshkuya and thank you for joining me!

00:09:21: And Thank You For All Your Beautiful And Supportive

00:09:24: Comments!!

00:09:25: I hope This Episode Of Market Talk Has Been Helpful & It Has Been Insightful To You.

00:09:30: so please do not hesitate to leave your comments, reactions and questions below.

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00:09:54: So I will meet again tomorrow.

00:09:57: until then good day trading!

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