Bonds rebound as yields look attractive, but...

Show notes

Markets are walking a tightrope. A sharp rebound in sovereign bonds suggests investors believe the surge in oil prices will slow global growth enough to limit central bank tightening. But is that a step too far?
While yields pulled back and Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a relatively balanced tone, inflation—especially in Europe—is far from under control. The ECB is unlikely to sit on its hands, keeping rate hikes firmly in play even as growth risks mount.
Meanwhile, equity rebounds look fragile. Energy stocks are thriving, but the broader market faces rising costs and potential margin compression. Yet earnings expectations remain resilient, driven by AI optimism and delayed reality checks.
The big question: are markets underpricing the economic damage from the oil shock?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.