Too early to price out the war?

Show notes

Markets are already pricing in peace—but is it far too early?
Despite rising geopolitical tensions and Iran’s rejection of the US proposal, equities continue to push higher, with the S&P500 showing surprising resilience. Investors appear eager to move past the conflict, but the reality on the ground tells a different story. Oil prices are climbing again, inflation risks are resurfacing, and central banks may be forced to stay tighter for longer.
At the same time, bond yields are rising, mortgage rates are creeping higher, and the US dollar is regaining strength. Markets are leaning into an optimistic scenario—but what if that optimism is misplaced?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.