AI peak cycle behaviour

Show notes

Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings beat expectations across nearly every metric, yet the stock plunged over 5% to close below $185, despite strong guidance. Michael Burry flagged Nvidia’s $95bn in purchase obligations — up from $16bn a year ago — warning that if AI demand slows, excess capacity could pressure margins. Meanwhile, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Snowflake all rose, driven by strong AI adoption and robust bookings. Memory chip makers remain the clear winners, pushing hardware costs higher and impacting PC and smartphone margins. Overall, Nvidia’s drop dragged the S&P 500 slightly lower, though most stocks advanced on falling U.S. yields. Gold consolidates gains near $5,200 per ounce, while crude oil swings on U.S.–Iran headlines. Volatility continues as markets digest AI adoption, macro trends, and geopolitical risks.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.