Politics, geopolitics cast shadow on economic data

Show notes

US markets are holding near record highs, but the mood is anything but settled. While US inflation data came in largely as expected, easing some immediate pressure on the Fed, political noise is creeping back into the pricing of rates, bonds and currencies. Expectations for a March rate cut are fading, yields are staying elevated, and concerns over Fed independence are largely in focus.
Earnings season adds another layer of complexity. S&P 500 profits are still expected to grow by more than 8%, with big tech doing the heavy lifting. But with valuations stretched, strong headline numbers may no longer be enough. Investors are digging deeper, looking for discipline, sustainable growth and restraint — especially in the AI space, where overspending and leverage remain key risks.
Beyond the US, Asian equities are hitting fresh highs, trade tensions are simmering, and oil prices are reacting to fresh geopolitical disruptions. Plenty to unpack.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.