An Imperfect CPI Report

Show notes

The latest US CPI report looked like an early Christmas gift: headline inflation cooled sharply, core inflation surprised to the downside, and markets briefly celebrated the return of disinflation. But was it really that simple?
A closer look reveals a far messier picture. Large parts of the October pricing data were missing, including key components such as shelter — a heavyweight in the CPI basket. Those gaps were effectively treated as showing no price growth, flattering the inflation numbers and earning the report its “Swiss cheese” nickname.
Markets initially cheered, yields dipped and equities rallied, before reality set in and enthusiasm faded. With energy prices creeping higher, shelter disinflation moving slowly, and jobs data sending mixed signals, the inflation outlook remains anything but clear.
So what does this imperfect CPI print really tell us? And does it change what the Fed should do next — or just add more noise to an already confusing picture?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.