Cheerful bad news

Show notes

The US economy lost 32’000 jobs in November — the fourth decline in six months. Small businesses bore the brunt, shedding 120,000 positions, outweighing gains in bigger firms. The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 3.50%, the probability of a December 25bp Fed cut jumped to 90% and the S&P 500 hovered near all-time highs. Because, of course, job losses are just another reason to cheer the dovish Fed expectations.
Japan, on the other hand, decided to show off. A 30-year government bond sale drew the strongest demand since 2019, with yields near 3.40%, sending the Nikkei up 2% — a polite reminder that bond flows still make markets dance.
US futures are steady this morning, though, as investors now face the big question: is it finally time to move – again - beyond tech and US-centric bets?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.