On the menu: US jobs, OPEC supply & French confidence vote

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Markets are bracing for a decisive US jobs report that could set the stage for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. Yesterday’s weak ADP print, higher jobless claims and softer labour signals from ISM all point to a cooling jobs market—boosting risk appetite as investors bet on rate cuts. The S&P 500 climbed back near record highs, while yields slipped across the curve, with the 30-year at 4.84%. But the story doesn’t end here: weaker jobs data today could cement expectations for September cuts, while next week’s inflation release could reignite long-end selling if tariff pressures show up in CPI.
Meanwhile, European yields eased, but France’s political turmoil looms. In Asia, Japanese wage growth revived BoJ hawks, and US auto tariff cuts couldn’t keep the Nikkei afloat. Oil trades cautiously ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, but waning Ukraine hopes will likely throw a floor under any further weakness.
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