Nvidia will say the last word of the summer

Show notes

The week started shaky for markets: French assets stumble as the PM faces a confidence vote, and the EURUSD struggles below its 50-DMA despite a pressured US dollar. In the US, tension grows between Fed Governor Lisa Cook and President Trump, fueling uncertainty over the Fed’s independence. Long-term yields continue to rise — US 30-year near 5%, UK 30-year above 5%, and European and Japanese bonds climbing — while S&P 500 earnings yield lags around 3–4%, hinting at a rotation from equities to bonds.
All eyes are on Nvidia’s Q2 results due after the bell: the AI giant makes ~8% of the S&P 500, and its earnings or the market’s reaction could move indices and set the tone for risk sentiment. Options pricing implies a 6% move in Nvidia, potentially driving a ~0.8% S&P 500 shift. With geopolitical and valuation risks high, investors may hedge via options, VIX futures, or diversification. Take your bets: the market’s next move could be big.
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