The shadow Fed, the weaker dollar and the near-record S&P500

Show notes

Trump denied earlier intelligence reports suggesting that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused only limited damage. On the contrary, he claimed the operation was a historic success and even declared the war over — ‘except that it could maybe restart soon.’ Still, the US and Iran are scheduled to meet for diplomatic talks in Iran this weekend, which appears to be a signal that Trump genuinely wants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Oil is lower, US dollar is lower as well despite Powell’s reluctance to cut rates amid tariff uncertainties. But Powell could be bypassed by a premature appointment of next Fed Chair, without however a guarantee that the markets will absorb unjustified rate cuts.
In all cases, the dollar continues to weaken, weaker dollar supports S&P500 revenue expectations but the S&P500 earnings should grow way faster than the dollar’s depreciation says Bloomberg Intelligence to be considered trading at ‘fair value’.
Listen to find out more!