Unideal trade news, data threaten global risk rally...

Show notes

iShares MSCI All World Index just hit a fresh all-time high yesterday — only a few hours after the OECD cut the global growth forecast, citing global trade uncertainties, tighter monetary conditions, and weakened consumer and business sentiment.
Yet investors couldn’t care less. Dips in equity markets are still seen as opportunities to buy cheaper despite unideal news on the trade and data fronts... But if you want to know, yesterday’s ISM services data showed a surprise contraction, and the ADP jobs report was weak — just 37,000 new private jobs last month. Over the past four months, three readings came in under 100K, and one under 50K. Historically, a string of sub-50K prints often signals recession is knocking.
But weak data just boosts rate-cut hopes. Markets now expect two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts by year-end, the first likely in September. The US 2-year yield fell below 3.90%, limiting equity downside — the S&P 500 closed flat. Magic!
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