Habemus a trade deal! Eyes on US-China talks this weekend

Show notes

Not only do we have a new pope this week, but we also have the first deal in Trump’s global trade war, this time between the UK and the US. Trump’s enthusiastic announcement, complete with a lot of CAPITAL LETTERS, helped inflate sentiment, making this US-UK deal feel bigger than it actually is.
Still, the news of the US-UK deal resonated positively across global financial markets and all eyes are on the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese high-level officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss tariffs. Further de-escalation could boost equities and the US dollar further and pull gold and Swiss franc lower.
In energy, the week ends on a better note than it started. US crude is back at the $60pb level after an early-week plunge to $55 on news that OPEC would accelerate plans to restore output — for reasons that remain unclear.
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