What recession?! | MarketTalk | Swissquote

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Do you remember we were predicting a recession, that was supposed to hit the US and the global economy at the start of the year?
A recession that would hit equities and boost bonds ?
Well, forget about all that, it’s not happening.
The US jobs data remains strong, inflation continues coming lower but the downtrend gives signs of slowing. And yesterday’s US retail sales data came as a cherry on top, with an eye-popping 3% rise in retail sales last month; it was the biggest jump in the past two years.
The S&P500 ended the session 0.28% higher, while Nasdaq 100 stocks added almost 0.80%.
Treasury yields pushed higher, however, on expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its rate hike policy – and quite aggressively, given that the rate hikes don’t seem to do any harm to the economy.
Deutsche Bank revised its terminal Fed rate from 5.1% to 5.6%. Citi believes that the Fed will end up pushing the rates all the way up to 6%.
Today, the US will reveal the latest producer price inflation data. Producer prices are expected to have ticked higher by 0.4% m-o-m in January, versus a 0.4% retreat printed last month. On a yearly basis, the PPI index is expected to have slowed from 6.2% to 5.4%.
Normally, I would expect a positive PPI surprise – meaning stronger inflation figures - to impact the market mood negatively, but at this point, I am not even sure that it matters.
Listen to find out more!