D-1: meagre appetite into Tue's US inflation data | MarketTalk | Swissquote

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US equities recorded their worst week since the year started.
Hawkish comments from many Federal Reserve (Fed) members hammers sentiment, as stress mounts before the much-important US CPI data due Tuesday.
If US inflation hasn’t eased, or eased enough, or God forbid, ticked unexpectedly higher on yearly basis, we could rapidly see the post-NFP optimism, and the pricing on the goldilocks scenario to leave its place to fear and chaos.
At the start of the week, the activity on Fed fund futures hints at around 91% chance for a 25bp in the next FOMC meeting, and around 9% chance for a 50bp hike.
In the FX, the US dollar index finally cleared the 50-DMA offers on Friday - which I think could be premature if tomorrow’s US inflation number is sufficiently soft.
A a wave of fresh buying in the Japanese yen also marked the latest mood in the currency markets, but didn’t last long.
The EURUSD, on the other hand, slipped below its own 50-DMA. What’s next depends on the US dollar, as the US dollar is what leads the dance right now.
In energy, US crude oil jumped past the $80pb on Friday, as Russia announced to cut its production by 500’000 barrels per day, which is roughly 5% of its daily production. But gains remain limited by an overall bearish mood and recession fears, and offers remain strong into the 100-DMA, which currently stands near $81pb level.
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