US inflation in the spotlight | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

The week started with limited appetite in US stock and a fresh record for Bitcoin. Major US indices were flat on Monday’s trading session ahead of today’s US CPI data.
Investors are not feeling fully comfortable into today’s US inflation print, as there are several factors warning of a second blip in US disinflation that could eventually lead to a further softening in dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
Volatility will certainly be on the menu of the day, as the Fed’s data-dependent approach results in an increased focus on inflation data. Bloomberg data shows that over the past six months, the S&P500 moved 0.8% up or down on average after the release of CPI data. And this number will likely go up in the run up to the first Fed rate cut.
In the meantime, Germany will release its own inflation numbers, which should print a softer yearly, and a higher monthly figure. The EURUSD retreated from post-NFP peak at yesterday’s session on expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut more than the Fed this year due to a softer economic outlook and fading pressure on wages, while yen traders are busy gathering evidence to justify a rate hike in Japan.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin hit a fresh record yesterday and gold is consolidating gains near record high into the US CPI data.
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