Calling a spade a spade. | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote
Show notes
The chances are that the first quarter of this year will be marked by the realization that it’s too early for the central banks to cut the interest rates unless something really bad – like another bank crisis, or a real estate crisis, or another debt crisis hits the fan.
The divergence between the reason and market pricing suggests that the rate cut expectations will be gently delayed and pricing will be revisited.
If that’s the case, stock and bond markets should correct to the downside, and the US dollar should recover.
The US dollar kicked off this week on a positive note, as the EURUSD made a swift move to the downside following ECB Holzmann’s warning that the threats from looming inflation will likely prevent the ECB from lowering the rates this year.
The EURUSD has potential to fall further. Cable could return below 1.25, and the USDJPY could make an attempt on the 100-DMA – near 147.40.
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