All eyes on US (dis)inflation! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

Optimism is on the menu ahead of today’s much-awaited US inflation report, and positive vibes will likely continue if today’s US inflation report comes in sufficiently soft. A consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg hints that US headline inflation may have gently increased from 3.1% to 3.2% in December, while core inflation has certainly eased from 4% to 3.8% - the slowest pace since May 2021. Data in line, or ideally softer than expected, will keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves in charge of the market and could further boost appetite in stocks and bonds – although the spectacular bond issuance at the start of the year will – at some point – draw attention to over-supply and exploding debt levels.
Anyway, in the short run, the US dollar is softer across the board this morning. The EURUSD could find a suitable reason to surpass the 1.10 mark, with weak potential to extend gains above this level.
The USDJPY rallied past the 145 level as a former Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member said that the BoJ is completely ready to exit the negative rates but that the normalization won’t be like the aggressive ones that we saw in the rest of the developed world; it will likely be very slow instead.
Elsewhere, investors will have a look on big US bank earnings, gains in crude oil remained limited and Bitcoin gave limited enthusiasm to the approval of spot ETF news.
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