2023 set to end on a positive note! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that’s below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully extend their rally. The S&P500 closed last week a few points below a ytd high, Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones consolidated near ATH levels and the US dollar looks miserable. The dollar index is at the lowest level since summer and about to step into the February to August bearish trend.
There is not much data left to go before this year ends. We have a light economic calendar for the week, and the trading volumes will be thin due to the end-end holiday.
This year looks set to end on a positive note as 1. Major central banks managed to rein in on inflation, the Fed seems more confident than the others. The latter looks suspicious and could stall the EURUSD rally – which will likely end the year above 1.10. The long Japanese yen is the mots popular trade of the moment but the strengthening yen will eventually jeopardize the dovish BoJ expectations. Finally, crude oil has all the reasons to break above $74/75pb resistance zone, but the battle between the bulls and the bears remains fierce close to this territory.
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