OPEC must show unity to get oil bulls running! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

The rally in US bonds continued at full speed yesterday and bonds are set to record their best month since the GFC this November. Although the US Q3 GDP was revised to an eye-popping 5.2% from an already high 4.9% printed earlier, investors focused on the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast which is now pointing at a sharp decline in the US GDP growth in the current quarter to around 2%. Note that a 2% growth in the US is still above average and shouldn’t be enough to convince the Fed to start cutting the rates too early if the slowdown in inflation remains insufficient. But if inflation slows, nothing will stop the bond traders from continuing to rush in.
Today, all eyes on the US PCE index – the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation. The headline PCE may have eased from 3.4% to 3.0% in October, and core PCE is seen down from 3.7% to 3.5%.
In the FX, the rally in US bond markets, and the tumbling US yields weigh on the US dollar. The USDJPY extended its drop, whereas the EURUSD couldn’t extend gains above the 1.10 mark as inflation data from some Eurozone countries came sufficiently soft yesterday.

In energy, OPEC is expected to announce an eagerly expected decision regarding its supply strategy today. The barrel of US crude is back to $78pb, and ready to jump above the 200-DMA if Saudi Arabia obtains a joint effort from other members in reducing supply.
Fun fact: 70’000 people flew to Dubai this week to talk about how to cut carbon emissions. 70’000 people. Additionally, the fossil fuel industry has been invited to participate more than any other COP since the gatherings began in 1995.
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