US government circus is back in town! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Show notes

What everyone – most investors, every household and every politician want to see and to sense right now is the end of the global monetary policy tightening cycle, and the beginning of the end starts mostly with the Federal Reserve (Fed). And the uncertainty regarding when the Fed will be done hiking the rates is killing everyone, but even the Fed itself doesn’t know when tightening will/should end. It will depend on US politics and the crucial economic data, like inflation, jobs, and growth figures.
This week, we will plunge back into the US political saga, as the government short-term funding deadline is due 17th of November and not much progress has been made to seal a fresh deal.
The all-important inflation data due Tuesday is going to impact the inflow/outflow dynamics in US Treasuries before the worries grow into the Friday funding deadline. A sufficiently soft inflation read should keep bond traders in appetite for further purchases and mask a part of the political worries, while disappointment could keep buyers on the sidelines and amplify a potential political-led selloff.
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